Nigeria Election: Obi Wins Lagos State; Tinubu Leads Overall

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The Facts

  • Nigeria's Labor Party presidential candidate Peter Obi has won a narrow victory in the commercial hub of Lagos state — defeating the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party's Bola Tinubu by less than 10K votes, according to electoral commission data released on Monday.

  • This comes as a surprising result as the APC contender was expected to easily win the state, which is his political stronghold. Tinubu is a former governor of Lagos and is an influential politician in the region.

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The Spin

Narrative A

Despite living under democratic rule since 1999, this is the first time that Nigerians could cast their votes for a candidate that offers hope for change as the country faces economic and security challenges. Obi can unite the country as he is campaigning on competence instead of on divisive ethnic or religious lines. He knows the problems of Nigeria more than anyone else.

Economist

Narrative B

While this election may promote youth engagement in politics and lead to a break in the hegemony of Nigeria's two establishment parties, very little will change. Even if Obi enters into office parliament is likely to remain under the control of those political forces. In addition, his market-oriented reforms can only deepen the country's social, economic, and security crises.

Jacobin

Metaculus Prediction