Niger: ECOWAS 'Ready' to Intervene Militarily if Diplomatic Efforts Fail

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Image copyright: UK Mission to the UN New York [via Flickr]

The Facts

  • Abdel-Fatau Musah, the commissioner for peace and security at the 15-member ECOWAS [Economic Community of West African States], stated Thursday that regional forces are "ready" to intervene militarily in Niger if diplomatic efforts fail to reinstate deposed President Mohamed Bazoum.

  • He further said that all member states except those under military rule — Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Mali — as well as Cape Verde stand prepared to join a standby force.

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The Spin

Narrative A

A military intervention in Niger would not only be ineffective as support for the junta grows, but could aggravate the crisis in West Africa and the Sahel. A regional war would likely sidetrack anti-terrorism efforts, embolden human traffickers, and provoke a mass influx of refugees — while risking to push Niger closer to Russia and the Wagner Group.

The Conversation

Narrative B

The military takeover in Niger was the last straw in a long string of coups that have recently taken place in ECOWAS countries, so it's time to send troops to topple the junta and deliver a strong deterrence message against coup plotters. If the regional bloc fails to fulfill its duties in trying to appease these authoritarians, then military coups will soon become epidemic in West Africa.

Pulse Ghana

Metaculus Prediction