Niger Alleges France Amassing Troops for Military Intervention

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The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Modern instability in West Africa is primarily down to hundreds of years of European colonialism. While other colonizing nations have largely retracted, France has remained a significant military player in West African countries. The coups that we've witnessed in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, Chad, and now Niger with the subsequent ousting of French forces have been due to persistent meddling, the exploitation of West African people and resources, and failed efforts to stop Islamic insurgencies overrunning the land.

Pro-establishment narrative

France has been supportive of the allyship with Niger. However, Paris will make every effort to protect the French nationalists and assets currently housed within Niger as the dissent grows. Pres. Emmanuel Macron has been clear that any attack against French interests will result in swift and just retaliation. France seeks a peaceful agreement to restore order in Niger and return the democratically elected former president Bazoum to his position leading the Niger people.

Metaculus Prediction

There's an 8% chance that ECOWAS will intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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