Moderate Democratic Sen. Manchin Won’t Run for Reelection

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The Facts

  • West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, 76, on Thursday announced he will not seek reelection in 2024.

  • In a statement, Manchin said that instead of running to remain in the Senate, he would be “traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together.”


The Spin

Republican narrative

Manchin's latest announcement has crushed Democrats' chances of retaining their Senate majority in 2024. There are so many vulnerable Democrats in swing states that the math was already daunting for them to remain in control. Now Manchin is basically handing his seat to Republicans, making the odds of a Democratic majority even smaller.

Democratic narrative

While Manchin's decision may cost Democrats a seat, it won't necessarily cost them the majority. With current polls placing incumbent Democrats ahead in several key states — including Montana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania — it would be premature to concede defeat. And, while rumors spread of a potential presidential run, they are just that: rumors.


Metaculus Prediction


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