Milei and Massa Head for Argentina Election Runoff

Image copyright: Tomas Cuesta/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Argentina will hold a presidential runoff between the left-wing Peronist coalition candidate Sergio Massa, the incumbent economy minister, and the libertarian outsider Javier Milei on Nov. 19, after no candidate reached the required polling threshold in Sunday's election.

  • With roughly 98% of the ballots counted, Massa won 36% of the vote while Milei, the frontrunner in pre-election opinion polls, secured 30%. To win outright, a candidate would have to win over 45% of the vote, or 40% plus a 10-point lead.


The Spin

Left narrative

Victory within the first round for Massa was an unexpected surprise, and almost certainly a disappointment for the radical libertarian Milei. Having hoped for a similar result to like-minded Bolsonaro in 2018, Milei's hopes for the perfect evening were ruined as a lack of consensus left Argentina in continued economic and social uncertainty. Despite the lead, a victory for Massa is by no means certain, and — despite the current state of the country — Argentina must think twice about allowing the far right to lead a change in direction.

Right narrative

This is certainly a shocking result, as Milei was expected to poll far better than the incumbent economy minister responsible for Argentina's inflation disaster and economic collapse, but the presidential race is far from being over. Now that a runoff election between Milei and Massa has been triggered, the center-right camp must overcome differences that set the tone of their campaigns to seize the opportunity to crush the Kirchnerismo criminal organization.


Metaculus Prediction


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

More neutral political stance articles