The Facts
Data released by the government of Japan on Wednesday shows that the country's population declined at its fastest-ever pace in 2022, with the number of Japanese citizens contracting by around 800K, a record number.
This was the first time that Japan's population fell in all 47 prefectures of the country since their demographic surveys began in 1968. A record low number of births — around 772K — and record high deaths — at 1.57M — sank the number of Japanese citizens to around 122.4M.
The Spin
Narrative A
Japan, once the poster child for population decline, is now just one of many developed countries that are facing population collapse thanks to shrinking fertility rates. Indeed, underpopulation, not overpopulation, is becoming the most pressing demographic threat to humanity. This will force countries like Japan — a harbinger of what the rest of the world will face — to adopt higher taxes, push back the retirement age, and face an intractable economic decline.
Narrative B
A declining population is not a one-way ticket to economic collapse, as dire predictions with regard to population trends fail to reflect reality. People in developed countries like Japan without children are simply making tradeoffs, as a declining birth rate is offset by a meteoric rise in life expectancy. A shift away from a mindset of endless growth and toward quality of life will have a beneficial impact on the environment and our well-being. There's no need to panic, as this time of change will bring as many opportunities as challenges.
