The Facts

  • Hours after a week-long truce between Israel and Hamas collapsed on Friday, Israel looked poised to launch a ground invasion into parts of the Gaza Strip. Seemingly brushing aside US concerns, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country's forces were "charging forward" and that the plan was for a total military victory.

  • "We continue to fight with all our strength until we achieve all our goals," Netanyahu said. "The return of all our abductees, the elimination of Hamas, and the promise that Gaza will never be a threat to Israel again."


The Spin

Pro-Israel narrative

The Hamas attacks on Oct. 7, in addition to attacks before and since, demonstrate to Israel that Hamas is only about one thing: seeking to rain death and destruction on Israel. Israel cannot rest until it is once again a safe haven for Jews and the threat from Hamas is completely eradicated.

Pro-establishment narrative

The US reaffirms Israel's right to defend itself, but as an ally, it expects Israel to conduct itself in a certain way, including making additional efforts to protect civilians and avoid further displacement of people from their homes. There must also be no reduction of Gaza's territory.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Since the Hamas attacks on Oct. 7, all that pundits and world leaders can seem to talk about is security and the right to defend one's self. However, it is only ever Israel's security and right to defend itself that's ever discussed. What about the Palestinians? They also have a right to security, particularly in light of decades of oppression and occupation.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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