Israel Says Hezbollah Must Withdraw 6 Miles Away From Northern Border

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The Facts

  • On Monday, with tensions growing between Israel and Hezbollah, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant told US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin that Hezbollah's military forces must withdraw to positions roughly six miles from the border with Israel to reduce tensions with Lebanon.

  • On Tuesday, the UN Security Council is expected to vote on a resolution calling for a Gaza ceasefire after the vote was delayed due to negotiations with the US over the resolution's wording. The original wording called for a "cessation of hostilities" but was changed to "suspension of hostilities" to potentially gain US support.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Though Israel has the right to dismantle Hamas's military capabilities, it must humanely wage this war. The amount of civilians being killed will only galvanize Palestinians against peace and push them into the arms of Hamas. A more thorough and surgical campaign is now needed to eliminate Hamas's leadership in Gaza, as Israel is losing global support.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though this has been a tragic war, Israel cannot allow Hamas to exist. However, it seems that the Biden admin. wants to pressure Israel into a ceasefire, Israel must push back against such short-sighted thinking. Israel is a sovereign country and has the right to defend itself from terrorism and pursue its interests. Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated so that the group can never launch a terrorist attack like Oct. 7 again.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip uninhabitable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and wants to make the Gaza Strip a wasteland. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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