The Facts

  • Iraq's federal government and its Kurdistan autonomous region signed an accord Tuesday to restart oil exports through Turkey after oil shipments were halted 10 days ago.

  • Kurdish Premier Masrour Barzani characterized the deal as “temporary” until Iraq’s parliament agrees on a new oil and gas law, but has called the agreement “a crucial step toward ending the longstanding dispute.”


The Spin

Narrative A

This deal will benefit all Iraqi people — both in Kurdistan, and other provinces. For the first time, Kurdistan will have a representative in the national oil structure, which will create an inclusive environment for Iraq to pass a more permanent national oil and gas law.

Narrative B

This agreement is an important first step in resolving decades of disagreement over oil exports in the region. More work, however, needs to be done in order to truly resolve this issue. All entitites need to work together to pass a federal law detailing the sharing of funds from oil and gas exports — there is a long road ahead.


Metaculus Prediction