US assesses China threat
RTJUL 2022
House Committee Lays Out Case for China Threat
Image copyright: Associated Press [via The Wall Street Journal]
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The hearing on Tuesday was a rare show of bipartisan agreement that highlighted the threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to the very existence of the US and its most fundamental values. The development also confirmed the reversal of decades of wishful thinking that China would eventually be liberalized if it were integrated into the global order. Americans do not want a Cold War 2.0, but they must protect themselves and the free world.
Establishment-critical narrative
Though China is clearly neither an existential threat, nor an enemy to the US, the new Republican-led Congress is pushing for war through the establishment of a committee that is spreading fear and lies about Beijing. The world needs cooperation and peace, not more conflict.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 7% chance that there will be an active warfare between the United States and China before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
