The Facts
On Monday, Guatemala's Supreme Electoral Tribunal announced that the conservative former First Lady Sandra Torres and the leftist congressman Bernardo Arévalo will head to a presidential runoff election on August 20 — neither came close to the 50% threshold needed to win in the first round.
With roughly 98% of the tally sheets processed, the National Unity of Hope (UNE) party's Torres had captured some 15% of the votes and the Semilla Party's Arévalo 12%. Abstention was at around 40% of the 9.3M citizens called to vote — two percent up from the 2019 elections.
The Spin
Narrative A
The surprising success of Arévalo in the first round reflects the resounding backlash from the Guatemalan nation to a political establishment that has promoted ignominious interventions and vile plans in efforts to maintain power. The political class cannot manipulate the voting public anymore — the people want disruption within the system.
Narrative B
It was known well before Election Day that Guatemala's establishment would not allow any candidate threatening the interests of the country's corrupt political elite to run for president — the fact that Arévalo advanced to the second round must be considered with skepticism rather than optimism. It is very likely that either he is not a threat to the status quo, or that he will be prevented from taking office.