The Facts
On Tuesday, the French military announced that it had begun withdrawing its troops from their bases in coup-affected Niger, a day after the country's military rulers said the first convoy of French troops would leave the West African country.
In a statement, Niger's military said French military personnel left their base in the town of Ouallam in southwestern Niger for neighboring Chad in an overland convoy escorted by the Nigerien military. Niger's military rulers urged citizens to cooperate in the operation.
The Spin
Narrative A
France's forced withdrawal from Niger is a humiliation for Paris and heralds the final end of an era in which France considered the Sahel and West Africa effectively its own backyard. But not only that: the withdrawal from Mali, Burkina Faso, and now Niger also fundamentally calls into question France's colonial self-perception as a great world power. Paris will have to fundamentally revise its African relations along with reducing its military presence if it wants to retain its remaining influence in Africa.
Narrative B
France's withdrawal from Niger is another setback for its influence in Africa, but Paris had no choice after the coup regime refused to restore the elected president. Moreover, the coup wasn't a response to growing insecurity but was purely politically motivated. While France achieved tactical successes in its local counterterrorism campaign, political violence is now rising in Niger, and countries such as Russia, China, and Turkey are expanding their regional clout. This does not bode well for the people of Niger.
Narrative C
The fact that the US only officially speaks of a coup in Niger months after Bazoum's ouster while leaving its troops in the country indicates that Washington is pursuing its very own agenda in Niger. France's withdrawal, from African countries like Niger, is a true gift for the US and provides it with a unique opportunity to expand its own geopolitical sphere of influence. This is crucial for Washington given the intense competition with powers like Russia to occupy the strategic vacuum left by France.
