Erdoğan Hints Finland's NATO Bid May Be Accepted Without Sweden

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The Facts

  • Turkish President Recep Erdoğan stated on Sunday that his government could accept Finland into NATO without ratifying Sweden, citing that Helsinki "should not make the same mistake" Stockholm did.

  • His signaling comes as Ankara last week suspended dialogue to accept the Nordic duo's accession to the alliance in the wake of a protest in the Swedish capital in which a copy of the Quran was burned.


The Spin

Narrative A

Turkey does not oppose NATO enlargement, however, it does take a stand against countries that protect those who pose a security threat to Ankara. Sweden holds a bigger PKK presence than Finland and has long been criticized for its housing of various terrorists. There must be a change in the country's stance towards the matter if they wish to join NATO alongside Finland.

Narrative B

The statement by Erdoğan may be an attempt to reopen negotiations, or it may be an attempt to cause a divide between Finland and Sweden. While much of Turkey's disapproval has always been directed at Sweden, Finland has made it consistently clear that NATO entry is a joint ticket. Sweden is as valuable an asset to NATO as NATO is to Sweden, and — for the sake of the Atlantic Alliance — it will be best for all parties if the issue is resolved.


Metaculus Prediction