Ecuador: Presidential Race Heads to González-Noboa Runoff

Image copyright: Wikimedia Commons

The Facts

  • Ecuador's National Electoral Council announced on Sunday that the Movimiento Revolución Ciudadana party's Luisa González would compete in a second-round runoff against entrepreneur Daniel Noboa on Oct.15, after neither candidate won over 50% of the vote in the presidential election.

  • With 85% of the ballot counted, González was leading with 33% of the vote and Noboa was in second place with nearly 24%.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Democracy is on the ballot in the upcoming Ecuadorian runoff election, as the country desperately needs to tackle organized crime. If the nation refrains from electing the candidate picked by Rafael Correa — a corrupt politician and authoritarian who has been criminally convicted — Washington should ramp up cooperation with Quito to show that lawful methods are effective at fighting violent drug gangs.

Establishment-critical narrative

Neoliberal policies have plunged Ecuador into security and economic crises — it's time for Ecuadorians to let the progressive Citizen Revolution return to power, as the country can't risk losing more time trialing inexperienced politicians. In the late 2000s, Correa managed to move a devastated, hopeless country forward. Today, he will assist González in getting the country back on track.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO