China Targets Lithuania, Says U.S. Incited Them Into Supporting Taiwan
NewsweekJUL 2022
The Spin
Pro-China narrative
A handful of gutsy European countries have attempted to defy the One China principle, with the latest now being Estonia. While in and of themselves, these countries lack the power to make any meaningful difference, such actions are a clear provocation of China's sovereignty. Estonia's behavior is by no means an unintentional mistake.
Anti-China narrative
China has clearly overreacted. The Estonian government has publicly declared that it stands firm in its One China policy. Similarly to numerous other EU countries, such as its two Baltic neighbors, Latvia and Lithuania, Estonia is solely interested in establishing a trade representation with the sole purpose of enhancing trade and cultural cooperation. This is a tempest in a teapot.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 50% chance that at least 13 UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
