China: New Covid Strain May Cause 65M Weekly Cases

Image copyright: Jason M. C. Han [via Wikimedia Commons]

The Facts

  • Roughly six months after ending its stringent COVID restrictions, China has warned that the latest Omicron variant, dubbed XBB, could infect over 65M people weekly before it peaks at the end of June.

  • Authorities are rushing to administer vaccines before XBB spreads, with a top Chinese epidemiologist, Zhong Nanshan, saying Monday that two new vaccines for subvariants XBB. 1.9.1, XBB. 1.5, and XBB. 1.16 have received initial approval.


The Spin

Narrative A

The world shouldn't panic over this latest COVID outbreak, but it should be aware of some novel variants, such as the Arcturus strain found in California in April, which are known to be linked to other health problems like pink eye and conjunctivitis. That being said, there is no need for widespread restrictions, only common sense precaution among residents of areas where outbreaks are occurring.

Narrative B

The international community, particularly regarding Western Europe, should have learned the importance of cross-national cooperation when it comes to public health responses. As China reopens travel to the rest of the world while also experiencing a COVID surge, it would behoove Western nations to implement streamlined protocols like testing foreign arrivals. Though it may aggravate China, it's important to be skeptical of Chinese data and choose safety over diplomacy.


Metaculus Prediction