The Facts
Belarusian Pres. Aleksandr Lukashenko stated on Thursday that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Russian private military company Wagner who had agreed to move to Belarus under a peace deal with the Kremlin, has returned to Russia.
His whereabouts have been unknown since a short-lived mutiny in Russia last month, with flight tracking data showing his private jet flying to Belarus in late June and returning to Russia the same evening.
The Spin
Pro-Russia narrative
While Lukashenko has claimed that Prigozhin is currently in St. Petersburg, the Kremlin has no interest in tracking him down. After Wagner forces withdrew its military columns and returned to their bases following an agreement to terminate a potential criminal case over their betrayal and armed mutiny, Moscow considers this incident over.
Anti-Russia narrative
The staged Wagner rebellion was a classic false flag to deceive the West into thinking the Kremlin is weak while boosting Putin's political power and recruitment for the army, as Prigozhin turned his troops around out of nowhere and fled to Belarus. Now that the mercenary chief walks free in Russia, his collusion with Putin is obvious to everyone.
Narrative C
Wagner's mutiny demonstrated that Putin's rule is becoming severely weakened. In a very short time, Prigozhin managed to gain support from elements across Russian society and the Russian government, making his rebellion even more worrisome for Putin. Indeed, Russia could be on the brink of a serious internal conflict.