Hundreds of Thousands of Afghans Leaving Pakistan Following Immigration Deadline

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The Facts

  • Hundreds of thousands of Afghans are believed to be leaving Pakistan as part of an order by Islamabad for undocumented migrants to either exit the country or be deported as of Nov. 1.

  • While Islamabad's order is aimed at all undocumented migrants, UN agencies estimate that there are over 2M Afghans currently illegally residing in Pakistan without paperwork, at least 600K of whom entered the state after the Taliban's 2021 return to power in Afghanistan.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The current policy of forced repatriation of Afghan refugees prioritizes misconceptions concerning security over human rights. Many forced back to live under the Taliban-led government will be exposed to inhumane conditions and face the immediate threat of persecution. The Afghan population in Pakistan cannot be blamed for deep-rooted and multidimensional factors — including a current economic crisis — that has undermined security within the state. Pakistan must halt its expulsion order.

Establishment-critical narrative

So far, the repatriation of Afghans — amongst other undocumented immigrants — has taken place in a safe and respectful manner. The voluntary process has been smooth due to Pakistan's establishment of facilities to provide water, tents, and food services, broadly leading to the satisfaction of those who have begun their journey home. While Pakistan will continue to provide relief and humanitarian assistance to refugees until they've been repatriated, Islamabad has a duty to prioritize its own citizen's safety and economy over anything else.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO