US: Drought Causes Smallest Cotton Harvest in 13 Years

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Image copyright: AP [via The Wall Street Journal]

The Facts

  • US cotton yield in 2022 is estimated to be the smallest since 2009, according to a monthly crop production report from the US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA).

  • The assessment, published Fri., cut the nation's predicted cotton crop output by 19% (almost 3M bales). It also predicted that the domestic carryout would fall to 1.8M bales, with the greatest harvest fall forecast for Texas - 2.9M bales overall this year, compared to 7.7M in 2021.

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The Spin

Narrative A

The US is one of many nations that are struggling with the effects of a long-lasting dry spell. Drought frequency and duration have risen by almost a third globally since 2000, and unless something is done, the climate crisis that's causing water stress across the world could affect more than 75% of humanity by 2050.

World Economic Forum

Narrative B

It's easy to dismiss extreme weather events as a consequence of climate change, but in reality weather events are usually influenced by a myriad of factors that have nothing to do with it. More research is needed before we can establish any direct causal link between the current situation and climate change.

FT

Metaculus Prediction