Ukraine Won't Take Whole Kherson Region Before 2022 Is Over: ISW
NewsweekJUL 2022
Day 245 Roundup: New British PM Re-Affirms Support for Ukraine; 'Heaviest of Battles' Ahead in Kherson, Kyiv Says
Image copyright: Downing Street [via Twitter]
The Spin
Narrative A
With Ukrainian forces zeroing in on Kherson, Russia looks set for another humiliating defeat — dashing their hopes for taking control of Mykolaiv and Odesa and creating a landbridge to the separatist Transnistria region of Moldova.
Narrative B
With Russian troops bedding in and mobilizing greater forces in the Kherson region, Ukrainian troops may succeed in retaking some territory but it's unlikely they'll recapture the whole region — at least not by the end of the year.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 50% chance that Ukraine will regain control of Kherson by Dec 23, 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
