Russia Intensifies Its Propaganda Campaign Against Ukraine
New York TimesJUL 2022
Day 246 Roundup: Fresh Strikes on Kyiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia Amid Russia and NATO Nuclear Drills
Image copyright: Russian Defense Ministry [via AP News]
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Putin has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons. Any nuclear attack would be met with severe consequences. For now, a show of strength from NATO in terms of what it's capable of is the best form of deterrence.
Establishment-critical narrative
In this current political environment, anyone who promotes compromise and de-escalation is attacked for allegedly appeasing Putin and making the world more dangerous. However, history has shown de-escalation is the only way out of this mess — people who argue the opposite are profoundly misguided.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 5% chance that at least one nuclear weapon will be detonated in Ukraine before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
