Day 203 Roundup: EU Chief Says Solidarity with Ukraine 'Unshakeable' as Energy Crisis Plan Unveiled

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The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Adoption of the Kyiv Security Compact will send a powerful signal to Putin – namely that his war is futile and that Western nations will not waiver in their support of Ukraine.

Pro-Russia narrative

Agreement on the Kyiv Security Compact would be tantamount to applying NATO's Article 5 principle of collective defense. Such a provocative document would lay the groundwork for the start of World War III.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 10% chance that there will be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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