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Burnham pledges to scrap pension triple lock from 2030

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Every major policy announcement in Burnhams Labour conference speech, from voting system to triple lock

Metaculus

Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

Richard Tice

Polymarket

Kalshi

Oddschecker

The Sun

Keir Starmer

Tom Baldwin

Scott McGlynn

Jonathan Brash

The New World

Esther Krakue

William Kedjanyi

Will Hazell

Dan Hodges

Andy Preston

"He's doomed, he will be gone - I thought he'd be gone by now. I was wrong. But I do think he's got just a few months in him."

"There is a 6% chance Keir Starmer will still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026."

"84% of bets back a 2026 exit for Keir Starmer."

"There is a 62% chance Keir Starmer will be out before Sep 1, 2026."

"There's a 32% chance Keir Starmer will remain Prime Minister in 2026."

"These things turn around very, very fast and anyone making predictions in the current atmosphere is a fool."

"There is only a 64% likelihood that he will still be in Downing Street by 31 December 2026."

“I will be sitting in this seat by 2027 and if this long-form interview works, we can try it again in January of next year as well.”

Will Keir Starmer Remain Prime Minister Through to the End of 2026?

Prime Minister Andy Burnham told the Labour conference in Liverpool on Tuesday that the state pension triple lock is to be "adjusted" from April 2030 to rise annually by inflation or 2.5% in order to help fund a National Care Service.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham told the Labour conference in Liverpool on Tuesday that the state pension triple lock is to be "adjusted" from April 2030 to rise annually by inflation or 2.5% in order to help fund a National Care Service.

Burnham said the pension change would "generate significant savings" to allow the service to be free at the point of use with no care charges taken from the basic state pension, whilst also pledging that the policy would not be funded by borrowing.

Burnham said the pension change would "generate significant savings" to allow the service to be free at the point of use with no care charges taken from the basic state pension, whilst also pledging that the policy would not be funded by borrowing.

Labour estimated following the announcement that the adjustment, which removes earnings as a measure for pension increases, would save £15 billion a year by the end of 2040 and £50 billion by 2050.

Labour estimated following the announcement that the adjustment, which removes earnings as a measure for pension increases, would save £15 billion a year by the end of 2040 and £50 billion by 2050.

A "strengthened" Water Bill will also be brought forwards, allowing Thatcher-era privatization of water companies to be potentially repealed. Burnham stated that whilst he would support private companies where they "serve public interest," public ownership could be a consequence for those who did not.

A "strengthened" Water Bill will also be brought forwards, allowing Thatcher-era privatization of water companies to be potentially repealed. Burnham stated that whilst he would support private companies where they "serve public interest," public ownership could be a consequence for those who did not.

Saying "Brexit has done more harm than good", Burnham pledged to use the U.K.-EU summit later this year to set out "different options are for Britain’s long-term relationship with our European partners."

Saying "Brexit has done more harm than good", Burnham pledged to use the U.K.-EU summit later this year to set out "different options are for Britain’s long-term relationship with our European partners."

A national commission on electoral reform was also announced, with Burnham pleding Labour would contest the next election on a manifesto pledge to change the voting system so "everyone's vote counts and everyone's voice is heard". YouGov currently places Labour ahead in the poills at 23%, followed by both the Conservatives and Reform UK at 21%.

A national commission on electoral reform was also announced, with Burnham pleding Labour would contest the next election on a manifesto pledge to change the voting system so "everyone's vote counts and everyone's voice is heard". YouGov currently places Labour ahead in the poills at 23%, followed by both the Conservatives and Reform UK at 21%.

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Finally a Labour leader with the guts to name what four decades of market worship did to this country and the heart to say why it matters. A National Care Service, public ownership and a fairer voting system add up to the boldest offer since 1945, and honesty about the triple lock proves this is serious governing, not sloganeering. Conviction like that wins elections.

Finally a Labour leader with the guts to name what four decades of market worship did to this country and the heart to say why it matters. A National Care Service, public ownership and a fairer voting system add up to the boldest offer since 1945, and honesty about the triple lock proves this is serious governing, not sloganeering. Conviction like that wins elections.

Wes Streeting

Lewis Goodall

Tears at a podium do not fix a broken economy, and a country this deep in debt cannot afford a nostalgia trip back to the 1970s that ended with the IMF. Nationalizing everything in sight, reopening Brexit and promising a voting system that would wipe out most Labour MPs is fantasy politics dressed in sentiment. Sensible policy, not stagecraft, is what the moment demands.

Tears at a podium do not fix a broken economy, and a country this deep in debt cannot afford a nostalgia trip back to the 1970s that ended with the IMF. Nationalizing everything in sight, reopening Brexit and promising a voting system that would wipe out most Labour MPs is fantasy politics dressed in sentiment. Sensible policy, not stagecraft, is what the moment demands.

Julia Hartley-Brewer

Allison Pearson

Starmer Leadership Crisis

UK: Burnham Announces National Care Service, Electoral Reform Plans at Party Conference

UK: Burnham Announces National Care Service, Electoral Reform Plans at Party Conference

Governance

Politics

United Kingdom

Burnham has lit a fire under Labour simply unimaginable only a year ago. Proposals for a National Care Service, public ownership of water, a fairer voting system and the desperately needed end to the triple lock add up to the boldest offer since Clement Attlee. In just one speech, Burnham has shown himself to be the generational leader Britain needs

Burnham has lit a fire under Labour simply unimaginable only a year ago. Proposals for a National Care Service, public ownership of water, a fairer voting system and the desperately needed end to the triple lock add up to the boldest offer since Clement Attlee. In just one speech, Burnham has shown himself to be the generational leader Britain needs

Smooth rhetoric does not justify bad ideas. Nationalizing everything in sight, reopening Brexit and promising to rip up British democracy's irreplaceable constituency link is saturated in ideological fanaticism rather than any real commitment to make the country a better place. The Labour Party may be appeased, but outside the echo chamber Britain remains profoundly unimpressed.

Smooth rhetoric does not justify bad ideas. Nationalizing everything in sight, reopening Brexit and promising to rip up British democracy's irreplaceable constituency link is saturated in ideological fanaticism rather than any real commitment to make the country a better place. The Labour Party may be appeased, but outside the echo chamber Britain remains profoundly unimpressed.

There is a 35% chance that the U.K. will have a Labour prime minister on Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 35% chance that the U.K. will have a Labour prime minister on Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

UK: Burnham Announces National Care Service, Triple Lock &amp; Electoral Reform Plans at Party Conference

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