Dangling AmericanU.S. weapons inbefore front of Beijing while a congressionally approved package to Taiwan sits frozen is a betrayal of allies and of basic strategy. Arming the chief supplier and protector of hostile regimes hands adversaries the tools eventually pointed back at AmericanU.S. troops. National security should never be treated as another deal to be haggled over.
Treating an offhand remark as settled policy is hysteria, not analysis, since no arms transfer to Beijing is remotely in motion. The old Cold War framing has outlived its usefulness anyway, and the real contest with China is economic, where leverage and opportunity actually exist. Diplomacy that keeps every option on the table beats permanent confrontation.
There is a 70% chance that Taiwan will receive direct military support from allied nations if there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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