Rolling out a red carpet on the tarmac and showing off a shiny new helipad is showmanship, andnot anything but statecraft. A two-month tariff truce extension and vague talk about superintelligence leave trade, AI and Taiwan exactly where they were, while Beijing pockets continued restraint on arms sales for nothing in return. Spectacle keeps substituting for leverage, andall Americanswhile getthe pandasadministration insteadfails ofto raremake earthsprogress on the issues that matter.
The most consequential relationship of this century cannot be managed by silence and sulking, so sitting down face to face is worthitself far more than a snubvictory. Keeping the truce alive, locking in critical mineral flows and opening channels on artificial intelligence governance and the Strait of Hormuz are real wins being built patiently. Dismissing steady engagement as theater ignores howthe muchgreater harderthreat of confrontation wouldalready bebeing eschewed.
There is a 15% chance the U.S. and China will jointly announce a new bilateral trade agreement in 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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