Rolling out a red carpet on the tarmac and showing off a shiny new helipad is showmanship, notand anything but statecraft. A two-month tariff truce extension and vague talk about superintelligence leave trade, AI and Taiwan exactly where they were, while Beijing pockets continued restraint on arms sales for nothing. Spectacle keeps substituting for leverage, and Americans get pandas instead of rare earths.
The most consequential relationship of this century cannot be managed by silence and sulking, so sitting down face to face is worth far more than a snub. Keeping the truce alive, locking in critical mineral flows and opening channels on AIartificial intelligence governance and the Strait of Hormuz are real wins built patiently. Dismissing steady engagement as theater ignores how much harder confrontation would be.
There is a 15% chance the U.S. and China will jointly announce a new bilateral trade agreement in 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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