An armed coalition of former enemies seizing airports risks more conflict, not a genuine democratic transition. Ethiopia has seen armed movements rooted in ethnic and territorial grievances fuel repeated instability, while unresolved disputes like Welkait remain dangerous flashpoints. Constitutional institutions and regional security cooperation offer a better alternative to another armed struggle with no clear plan for what follows.
Tigray is sliding back toward war, and Addis Ababa is helping drive the escalation. Drone strikes, renewed fighting and attacks affecting residential areas are grim warning signs after a conflict that already killed hundreds of thousands. Letting the Ethiopia sanctions emergency lapse now, as civilians again face the consequences of military escalation, risks giving Abiy's government more room to pursue force without accountability.
There is a 49 percent chance that Ethiopia will experience a civil war before 2036, according tio the Metaculus prediction community.
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 7.4.1