A bad night at the ballot box is no reason to abandon reforms Germany desperately needs. The economy is stalling, and the political center is fraying, which makes hard choices more urgent. Backbone, steadfastness and patience are exactly what the moment demands and caving to panic would only deepen the mess.
Calling a collapse to under 5% a "disaster" and then acting as if nothing happened insults voters. When a chancellor's approval sinks to around 10% while the AfD surges past 35% in the east, that is a verdict. Clinging to power after being wiped out of a state parliament betrays the very people who put the CDU there.
Something remarkable is unfolding in Northern Europe. Sweden's center-left has won 176–173, yet its four parties disagree over governing partners. In Mecklenburg-VorpommernWestern Pomerania, AfD has doubled to 37%, while Merz's CDU has fallen to 5.5%, but AfD may remain excluded. Red lines can protect democracy, but if millions believe elections cannot change power, trust erodes. Democracies ultimately need majorities built around solutions, not exclusion.
There's a 13% chance that the Christian Democratic Union of Germany will announce that it is open to negotiating a coalition with the Alternative for Germany before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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