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"It will then likely continue holding rates steady for the rest of 2026, before hiking 25 basis points (bp) in the third quarter of 2027."

"With the Iran conflict unresolved, oil prices remaining high, and persistent inflationary pressures, the conditions required for the Fed to cut rates have yet to emerge."

"Outside economists and business leaders broadly agree that while easing geopolitical tensions could pave the way for rate cuts in 2026, policymakers risk moving too quickly if inflation tied to energy prices remains elevated."

"Traders in the futures market shifted the probability of a rate increase by the end of 2026 to 52% on Friday morning."

“Despite higher inflation forecasts the FOMC retains an easing bias, with a narrow majority on the committee expecting cuts to resume this year.”

"There is a 36.9% chance that there will be zero interest rate cuts in 2026."

"In the new [Bloomberg] survey, conducted March 6-11, just after the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, respondents said they expect [rate cut] moves in June and October."

"There was no clear consensus where rates would ​end the year, but 71 [of 103] economists still expected at least one cut."

"We [BofA]  still expect cuts this year given the Fed's bias to look through supply-driven inflation, little signs of wage pressures, and political pressure."

"We continue to ​think signs of a weakening labor market ​will ⁠result in [rate] cuts later in the year. But the timing of upcoming data suggests a later start ⁠to ​rate cuts than we had ​previously been expecting."

"I want to see a little bit of recovery there. But, of course, I've written three cuts in for before the end of 2026 to hopefully support the labor market."

Will the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates in 2026?

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to lift the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point from 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, saying that the move supports a "timelier return" to its 2% inflation goal.

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to lift the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point from 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, saying that the move supports a "timelier return" to its 2% inflation goal.

This was the first increase in more than three years, following the Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged at its first five meetings of this year. In a statement, the Fed said that economic activity is expanding at a "solid pace" and domestic spending has been "resilient."

This was the first increase in more than three years, following the Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged at its first five meetings of this year. In a statement, the Fed said that economic activity is expanding at a "solid pace" and domestic spending has been "resilient."

New quarterly projections showed 16 of 18 policymakers expect at least one more quarter-point hike by year-end, which would take the rate just above 4%. Only two saw rates holding at the current level.

New quarterly projections showed 16 of 18 policymakers expect at least one more quarter-point hike by year-end, which would take the rate just above 4%. Only two saw rates holding at the current level.

This increase came despite U.S. President Donald Trump's repeated public demands for cheaper borrowing. Trump selected Chairman Kevin Warsh partly in expectation of rate cuts.

This increase came despite U.S. President Donald Trump's repeated public demands for cheaper borrowing. Trump selected Chairman Kevin Warsh partly in expectation of rate cuts.

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over 12 months, while core inflation climbed 0.3%, above forecasts. Fed projections do not show inflation returning to the 2% target until 2029, a year later than previously estimated.

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over 12 months, while core inflation climbed 0.3%, above forecasts. Fed projections do not show inflation returning to the 2% target until 2029, a year later than previously estimated.

Also, diesel averaged a record $6.31 a gallon Wednesday and gasoline $4.37, according to AAA, while the 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% this week for the first time in 19 years and 30-year mortgage rates neared 7%.

Also, diesel averaged a record $6.31 a gallon Wednesday and gasoline $4.37, according to AAA, while the 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% this week for the first time in 19 years and 30-year mortgage rates neared 7%.

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The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to lift the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, saying the move supports a "timelier return" to its 2% inflation goal.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to lift the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, saying the move supports a "timelier return" to its 2% inflation goal.

It was the first increase in more than three years, following the Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged at its first five meetings of the year. The statement said economic activity is expanding at a solid pace and domestic spending has been resilient.

It was the first increase in more than three years, following the Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged at its first five meetings of the year. The statement said economic activity is expanding at a solid pace and domestic spending has been resilient.

The increase came despite Trump's repeated public demands for cheaper borrowing. "Lower the interest rates," he said, arguing the U.S. is a stronger credit than it was a short time ago. Trump selected Chairman Kevin Warsh in expectation of rate cuts.

The increase came despite Trump's repeated public demands for cheaper borrowing. "Lower the interest rates," he said, arguing the U.S. is a stronger credit than it was a short time ago. Trump selected Chairman Kevin Warsh in expectation of rate cuts.

Diesel averaged a record $6.31 a gallon Wednesday and gasoline $4.37, according to AAA, while the 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% this week for the first time in 19 years and 30-year mortgage rates neared 7%.

Diesel averaged a record $6.31 a gallon Wednesday and gasoline $4.37, according to AAA, while the 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% this week for the first time in 19 years and 30-year mortgage rates neared 7%.

The Fed did exactly what an independent central bank is supposed to do: fight inflation instead of flattering the White House. A unanimous 12-0 vote and a quarter-point hike, the first since 2023, show the committee reads the data rather than the political mood. Holding steady after markets priced a hike at 92% would have pushed yields higher and torched credibility.

The Fed did exactly what an independent central bank is supposed to do: fight inflation instead of flattering the White House. A unanimous 12-0 vote and a quarter-point hike, the first since 2023, show the committee reads the data rather than the political mood. Holding steady after markets priced a hike at 92% would have pushed yields higher and torched credibility.

Peter B

Chris D. Jackson

Mohamed A. El-Erian

An oil supply shock cannot be fixed with interest rates, and this hike to 3.75%-4.00% proves the point. Higher rates produce zero extra barrels, zero refining capacity and zero repaired supply chains, while squeezing credit card borrowers, builders, manufacturers and a government refinancing trillions in debt. Punishing American enterprise for an energy crisis invites a recession.

An oil supply shock cannot be fixed with interest rates, and this hike to 3.75%-4.00% proves the point. Higher rates produce zero extra barrels, zero refining capacity and zero repaired supply chains, while squeezing credit card borrowers, builders, manufacturers and a government refinancing trillions in debt. Punishing American enterprise for an energy crisis invites a recession.

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Steven Fiorillo

US Election Issue: Economy

Fed Hikes Rates to 4%, Defying Trump's Calls for Cuts

Fed Hikes Rates to 4%, Defying Trump's Calls for Cuts

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Economic conditions & trends

This is exactly what an independent central bank is supposed to do: fight inflation instead of flattering the White House. A unanimous 12-0 vote and a quarter-point hike show that committee reads the data rather than the political mood. Holding steady after markets priced a hike at 92% would have pushed yields higher and torched credibility.

This is exactly what an independent central bank is supposed to do: fight inflation instead of flattering the White House. A unanimous 12-0 vote and a quarter-point hike show that committee reads the data rather than the political mood. Holding steady after markets priced a hike at 92% would have pushed yields higher and torched credibility.

An oil supply shock can't be fixed with interest rates, and this small hike proves the point. Higher rates produce zero extra barrels, zero refining capacity and zero repaired supply chains, while squeezing credit card borrowers, builders, manufacturers and a government refinancing trillions in debt. Punishing American enterprise for an energy crisis invites a recession.

An oil supply shock can't be fixed with interest rates, and this small hike proves the point. Higher rates produce zero extra barrels, zero refining capacity and zero repaired supply chains, while squeezing credit card borrowers, builders, manufacturers and a government refinancing trillions in debt. Punishing American enterprise for an energy crisis invites a recession.

There's a 50% chance that the Federal Reserve will set a target policy rate that is negative by Jan. 1, 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 50% chance that the Federal Reserve will set a target policy rate that is negative by Jan. 1, 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Fed Hikes Rates to 4%, Defying Trump's Calls for Cuts

Fed Hikes Rates to 4%, Defying Trump's Calls for Cuts

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Fed Hikes Rates to 4%, Defying Trump's Calls for Cuts

Fed Hikes Rates to 4%, Defying Trump's Calls for Cuts

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