An explicit warning from the UAE president that Sinwar was preparing a massive attack landed directly with Netanyahu, and the response was a shrug and a claim that the West Bank was the real problem. Worse, the Shin Bet, Mossad and IDF chiefs were never told, which robbed them of the one piece that could have changed the whole assessment. That is negligence that demands accountability.
The entire story rests on three anonymous foreign sources in a book dropped weeks before an Israeli election and amplified by a paper that has wanted Netanyahu gone for years. The prime minister's office calls it an absolute lie, a former insider calls it fake news, the ambassador in Abu Dhabi knew of no such call and the UAE declined to confirm anything. That is a political ambush, not evidence.
There is a 3% chance that the Gaza war will end and significant progress will be made towards a two-state solution before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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