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For the First Time, Older Adults Outnumber Young Kids

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World enters new demographic era as over-65s outnumber children under 5

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People aged 65 and over surpass young children in historic global shift

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Historic first: Older adults now outnumber the youngest children worldwide

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Older adults outnumber youngest children globally

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Japan "could effectively disappear by 2200 as a nation."

In 700 years, "there will be no more Japanese."

"Japan will perish by about 2056 because men are refusing to have intimate relationships with the women."

"The country's population will be just 500 by the year 3000, and just one by 3500."

"Within the next 1,750 years, the Japanese people could be no more."

"Japan may become the first country to become extinct due to the declining birth rate."

Will Japan's Population Go Extinct?

According to the U.S. Census Bureau's "An Aging World: 2025" report, published Thursday, people aged 65 and over now account for 10.5% of the global population for the first time in recorded history, surpassing children aged 5 and under.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau's "An Aging World: 2025" report, published Thursday, people aged 65 and over now account for 10.5% of the global population for the first time in recorded history, surpassing children aged 5 and under.

The demographic tipping point arrived earlier than demographers had projected. In 2023, more than 71% of the world's population lived in countries with fertility rates at or below the 2.1-births-per-woman replacement level, up from 45% in 2013.

The demographic tipping point arrived earlier than demographers had projected. In 2023, more than 71% of the world's population lived in countries with fertility rates at or below the 2.1-births-per-woman replacement level, up from 45% in 2013.

The global population aged 65 and over is projected to grow from 852 million in 2025 to 2 billion by 2060, accounting for roughly 55% of net global population growth over that period, as the world's total population rises from 8.13 billion to 10.23 billion.

New York Post

The global population aged 65 and over is projected to grow from 852 million in 2025 to 2 billion by 2060, accounting for roughly 55% of net global population growth over that period, as the world's total population rises from 8.13 billion to 10.23 billion.

South Korea, where 20.3% of the population was aged 65 or older in 2024, is projected to become the world's oldest country by 2060, as that share rises to 41% and surpasses Japan. Europe's share of older adults is expected to rise from 21% to nearly 31% over the same period.

South Korea, where 20.3% of the population was aged 65 or older in 2024, is projected to become the world's oldest country by 2060, as that share rises to 41% and surpasses Japan. Europe's share of older adults is expected to rise from 21% to nearly 31% over the same period.

Africa's population aged 65 and over is projected to more than quadruple, from 60 million to 249 million by 2060, surpassing Europe's projected 214 million. Asia is expected to see the largest numerical increase, with its older population forecast to rise from 487 million to 1.24 billion.

Clash Report

Africa's population aged 65 and over is projected to more than quadruple, from 60 million to 249 million by 2060, surpassing Europe's projected 214 million. Asia is expected to see the largest numerical increase, with its older population forecast to rise from 487 million to 1.24 billion.

Across OECD countries, government health care spending is projected to rise by 2.6% of GDP over the next decade, twice the projected 1.3% growth in revenues. The OECD has warned that rising defense budgets will compound existing pressures from growing pension and health care costs.

Across OECD countries, government health care spending is projected to rise by 2.6% of GDP over the next decade, twice the projected 1.3% growth in revenues. The OECD has warned that rising defense budgets will compound existing pressures from growing pension and health care costs.

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For the first time in recorded history, people aged 65 and over account for 10.5% of the global population, surpassing children aged 5 and under, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's "An Aging World: 2025" report.

For the first time in recorded history, people aged 65 and over account for 10.5% of the global population, surpassing children aged 5 and under, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's "An Aging World: 2025" report.

The global population aged 65 and over is projected to grow from 852 million in 2025 to 2 billion by 2060, representing roughly 55% of all net global population growth over that period, as the world's total population rises from 8.13 billion to 10.23 billion.

New York Post #765

The global population aged 65 and over is projected to grow from 852 million in 2025 to 2 billion by 2060, representing roughly 55% of all net global population growth over that period, as the world's total population rises from 8.13 billion to 10.23 billion.

South Korea, where 20.3% of the population was aged 65 or over in 2024, is projected to become the world's oldest country by 2060, with that share rising to 41% and surpassing Japan. Europe's share of older adults is expected to rise from 21% to nearly 31% over the same period.

South Korea, where 20.3% of the population was aged 65 or over in 2024, is projected to become the world's oldest country by 2060, with that share rising to 41% and surpassing Japan. Europe's share of older adults is expected to rise from 21% to nearly 31% over the same period.

Across OECD countries, increased government health care spending over the next decade is estimated at 2.6% of GDP, twice the projected 1.3% growth in revenues. The OECD has warned that rising defense budgets will compound existing pressures from growing pension and health care costs.

Across OECD countries, increased government health care spending over the next decade is estimated at 2.6% of GDP, twice the projected 1.3% growth in revenues. The OECD has warned that rising defense budgets will compound existing pressures from growing pension and health care costs.

Falling birth rates aren't just a niche concern — societies aging faster than they replace themselves face a brutal math problem where fewer taxpayers must support growing retired populations. People aren't choosing to have fewer kids; they're failing to have the families they actually want, squeezed out by housing costs, childcare bills and delayed relationships. Fixing this demands honesty about the structural forces at work, not simple cash bonuses that have never moved the needle.

Falling birth rates aren't just a niche concern — societies aging faster than they replace themselves face a brutal math problem where fewer taxpayers must support growing retired populations. People aren't choosing to have fewer kids; they're failing to have the families they actually want, squeezed out by housing costs, childcare bills and delayed relationships. Fixing this demands honesty about the structural forces at work, not simple cash bonuses that have never moved the needle.

The real cost of depopulation isn't just strained pension systems — it's a slower pace of human progress, since fewer people means smaller markets for innovation and fewer minds generating the ideas that raise living standards globally. Pronatal cash incentives and subsidies have never sustainably lifted birth rates anywhere, so doubling down on them misses the point entirely. The smarter move is protecting scientific investment and liberalizing immigration while building a broader consensus that more people is genuinely good for humanity.

The real cost of depopulation isn't just strained pension systems — it's a slower pace of human progress, since fewer people means smaller markets for innovation and fewer minds generating the ideas that raise living standards globally. Pronatal cash incentives and subsidies have never sustainably lifted birth rates anywhere, so doubling down on them misses the point entirely. The smarter move is protecting scientific investment and liberalizing immigration while building a broader consensus that more people is genuinely good for humanity.

The Global Birth Rate Decline

Elderly Now Outnumber Young Children Worldwide

Elderly Now Outnumber Young Children Worldwide

Social issues

World

The demographic shift signals a profound demographic reversal: falling fertility and longer lives are rapidly aging societies. Governments face mounting pressure on pensions, healthcare and shrinking workforces, while fewer young people must support more retirees. What once looked like a distant demographic forecast has become today's economic and social reality.

The demographic shift signals a profound demographic reversal: falling fertility and longer lives are rapidly aging societies. Governments face mounting pressure on pensions, healthcare and shrinking workforces, while fewer young people must support more retirees. What once looked like a distant demographic forecast has become today's economic and social reality.

The milestone need not be a warning of decline. It reflects two extraordinary achievements: people are living longer and fewer children are dying young. The real challenge is adapting institutions to longer lives. Older people can remain productive, experienced contributors rather than burdens. The demographic shift offers an opportunity to redesign work, care, retirement and intergenerational cooperation.

The milestone need not be a warning of decline. It reflects two extraordinary achievements: people are living longer and fewer children are dying young. The real challenge is adapting institutions to longer lives. Older people can remain productive, experienced contributors rather than burdens. The demographic shift offers an opportunity to redesign work, care, retirement and intergenerational cooperation.

The Monitor

Falling birth rates are not simply a story of selfish young people, feminism or unaffordable children. Multiple forces collide: expensive housing, delayed relationships, longer education, intensive parenting, changing gender expectations, declining religion, technology and reproductive biology. The deeper problem is the growing gap between the families people hope for and the families they ultimately manage to build.

Falling birth rates are not simply a story of selfish young people, feminism or unaffordable children. Multiple forces collide: expensive housing, delayed relationships, longer education, intensive parenting, changing gender expectations, declining religion, technology and reproductive biology. The deeper problem is the growing gap between the families people hope for and the families they ultimately manage to build.

There's a 50% chance that the global fertility rate will be 1.84 children per woman in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 50% chance that the global fertility rate will be 1.84 children per woman in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Report: Elderly Now Outnumber Young Children Worldwide

Report: Elderly Now Outnumber Young Children Worldwide

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Report: Elderly Now Outnumber Young Children Worldwide

Report: Elderly Now Outnumber Young Children Worldwide

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Bastani

Taylor

LL.M

Guardian

Weller

Yoshida

Go Deeper

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