Maduro's immunity claim is a legal long shot — the U.S. hasn't recognized him as Venezuela's president since 2019, and courts defer to the executive branch on exactly that kind of call. The Noriega precedent shows that American courts won't let foreign leaders dodge drug trafficking charges by hiding behind sovereignty. Flooding U.S. streets with cocaine isn't an "official act" deserving protection.
No American court has ever tried a foreign leader recognized by their own country as sitting head of state — and that alone makes this prosecution constitutionally shaky. Prosecuting Maduro for acts carried out through official state powers and instrumentalities violates bedrock principles of customary international law that predate the republic itself. Abducting a foreign leader and then calling him illegitimate to sidestep immunity is a political maneuver, not a legal argument.
There's an 8% chance that the United States will invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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