Study: Global Fertility Falls Below Replacement for First Time

6 days ago·Updated 5 days ago

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Above: Twins take part in the 6th Beijing Twins Festival on Oct. 6, 2009. Image credit: CN-STR/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Global fertility has fallen below replacement for the first time, and the real shock is that the collapse is hitting poor and middlelower-income countries hardest — Thailand at 0.87 births per woman, Colombia at 1.01, while modernity makes a third child expensive and childlessness cheap. No economic mechanismincentive pushes fertility back to replacement, meaningand slowerSouth GDPKorea growth,shows strainedhow pensionshard andreversal shrinkingcan laborbe: forcesstabilizing areits thepopulation newwould normal.require U.N.a projectionshuge arebaby too optimisticboom, andmassive themigration trueor populationextraordinary peaklongevity. isSlower likelyGDP around 2056growth, decadesstrained earlierpensions thanand officialshrinking forecastslabor forces are the new normal.

University of Pennsylvania Our World in Data

Falling birth rates are a policy and cultural problem, not an unstoppable fate. BabyFrance bonuses,shows family-friendlythat housingsustained andpronatal endingpolicies marriage— penaltiesfrom cantax makebreaks havingand childrenchild easier,benefits butto changingflexible culturalchildcare norms— matterscan too.raise Peoplefertility, need communities and rolemodest modelsgains thatcompound celebrateinto marriage,millions parenthoodmore andpeople biggerover familiesgenerations. ToBut avoidpolicy demographicalone collapseis not enough, havingas childrensocieties mustalso beneed normalnorms, supportedcommunities and aspirational,role andmodels thosethat whomake havemarriage, kidsparenthood mayand needbigger tofamilies haveaspirational. moreUltimately, todemographic offset those who have none or one. Demographic decline is a choice, not destiny.

Institute for Family Studies Institute for Family Studies

Elon Musk on X

TheFalling casebirth forrates chillingare outnot abouta birthcivilization-ending rates...crisis, but a consequence of social progress that societies should embrace rather than panic over. As women gain education, economic freedom and control over reproduction, families shrink alongside lower child mortality and greater prosperity. Fewer people could also mean less pressure on resources and ecosystems, while technology and rising productivity can sustain living standards without endless population growth.