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Within the lifetime of children being born today, the global human population is projected to begin shrinking for the first time since the Black Death  no country on Earth currently has a fertility r

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Economists Say World Population May Have Already Crossed into Below Replacement Fertility, Faster Than U.N. Estimates

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Japan "could effectively disappear by 2200 as a nation."

In 700 years, "there will be no more Japanese."

"Japan will perish by about 2056 because men are refusing to have intimate relationships with the women."

"The country's population will be just 500 by the year 3000, and just one by 3500."

"Within the next 1,750 years, the Japanese people could be no more."

"Japan may become the first country to become extinct due to the declining birth rate."

Will Japan's Population Go Extinct?

A new paper by economists Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Patrick Norrick argues that as of 2026, humanity is likely below replacement fertility for the first time in history — a threshold they estimate at roughly 2.20 births per woman globally, compared to the commonly cited 2.1 figure used for wealthier nations.

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde

A new paper by economists Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Patrick Norrick argues that as of 2026, humanity is likely below replacement fertility for the first time in history — a threshold they estimate at roughly 2.20 births per woman globally, compared to the commonly cited 2.1 figure used for wealthier nations.

The paper, published Aug. 10 and titled "Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World," projects world population will peak at roughly 9 billion around 2056 — nearly three decades earlier than the U.N.'s central projection of a peak near 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s.

The paper, published Aug. 10 and titled "Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World," projects world population will peak at roughly 9 billion around 2056 — nearly three decades earlier than the U.N.'s central projection of a peak near 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s.

Using a single-factor model covering 236 countries from 1950 to 2023, the authors found negative fertility trends in 219 of them, with a common global fertility component that peaked in 1978. Some of the steepest declines are occurring in middle-income countries, including Thailand, Colombia, Tunisia, Algeria and Iran.

Using a single-factor model covering 236 countries from 1950 to 2023, the authors found negative fertility trends in 219 of them, with a common global fertility component that peaked in 1978. Some of the steepest declines are occurring in middle-income countries, including Thailand, Colombia, Tunisia, Algeria and Iran.

A separate Our World in Data analysis from last week notes 64 countries and territories, primarily in Europe and East Asia, had already passed peak population as of 2026, with many experiencing structural population decline. Without migration, the U.S. population would peak soon and shrink by roughly 60 million by 2100, per U.N. medium-variant projections.

A separate Our World in Data analysis from last week notes 64 countries and territories, primarily in Europe and East Asia, had already passed peak population as of 2026, with many experiencing structural population decline. Without migration, the U.S. population would peak soon and shrink by roughly 60 million by 2100, per U.N. medium-variant projections.

Fernández-Villaverde and Norrick found that actual 2024 births in 37 countries with reliable registration systems came in about 9.3% below U.N. projections, with Colombia 36.5% below, South Africa 33.4% below and Thailand 24.1% below. Only four of the 37 countries recorded more births than projected.

Fernández-Villaverde and Norrick found that actual 2024 births in 37 countries with reliable registration systems came in about 9.3% below U.N. projections, with Colombia 36.5% below, South Africa 33.4% below and Thailand 24.1% below. Only four of the 37 countries recorded more births than projected.

Africa remains the only world region where fertility currently exceeds the replacement level, with a rate of roughly 4.0 births per woman, though U.N. projections expect that to fall to 2.0 by 2100. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to account for essentially all remaining global population growth through the century.

Africa remains the only world region where fertility currently exceeds the replacement level, with a rate of roughly 4.0 births per woman, though U.N. projections expect that to fall to 2.0 by 2100. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to account for essentially all remaining global population growth through the century.

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Global fertility decline is a structural reality, not a blip — 64 countries had already passed peak population by 2026, and the trend is irreversible for many. South Korea and China could see populations more than halve by century's end, while the U.S. only avoids decline because of immigration. Cut that immigration, and America loses 130 million people by 2100.

Global fertility decline is a structural reality, not a blip — 64 countries had already passed peak population by 2026, and the trend is irreversible for many. South Korea and China could see populations more than halve by century's end, while the U.S. only avoids decline because of immigration. Cut that immigration, and America loses 130 million people by 2100.

Not only is world population decline now structural, the fertility collapse is happening fastest where nobody expected it — middle-income countries like Colombia and Thailand are cratering below 1.0, and the U.N. is still lowballing the crisis. Actual birth registries show the U.N. overshot 2024 births by over 1.6 million across 37 countries. World population likely peaks around 2056 at nine billion, three decades earlier than official projections admit.

Not only is world population decline now structural, the fertility collapse is happening fastest where nobody expected it — middle-income countries like Colombia and Thailand are cratering below 1.0, and the U.N. is still lowballing the crisis. Actual birth registries show the U.N. overshot 2024 births by over 1.6 million across 37 countries. World population likely peaks around 2056 at nine billion, three decades earlier than official projections admit.

The Case for Chilling Out About Birth Rates...

The Case for Chilling Out About Birth Rates...

The West's Demographic Math No Longer Adds Up

The West's Demographic Math No Longer Adds Up

There is a 50% chance that the peak human population before 2100 will be 9.84 billion, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 50% chance that the peak human population before 2100 will be 9.84 billion, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

The Odyssey

The Global Birth Rate Decline

Study: Global Fertility Falls Below Replacement for First Time

Study: Global Fertility Falls Below Replacement for First Time

Babies

Lifestyle

Social conditions & trends

World

Global fertility has fallen below replacement for the first time in human history, and the real shock is that the collapse is hitting poor and middle-income countries hardest — Thailand sits at 0.87 births per woman, Colombia at 1.01, while modernity makes a third child expensive and childlessness cheap everywhere. No economic mechanism pushes fertility back to replacement, meaning slower GDP growth, strained pension systems and shrinking labor forces are now the permanent new normal. The UN's own projections are systematically too optimistic, and the true population peak is likely around 2056, decades earlier than official forecasts.

Global fertility has fallen below replacement for the first time in human history, and the real shock is that the collapse is hitting poor and middle-income countries hardest — Thailand sits at 0.87 births per woman, Colombia at 1.01, while modernity makes a third child expensive and childlessness cheap everywhere. No economic mechanism pushes fertility back to replacement, meaning slower GDP growth, strained pension systems and shrinking labor forces are now the permanent new normal. The UN's own projections are systematically too optimistic, and the true population peak is likely around 2056, decades earlier than official forecasts.

Falling birth rates are a policy problem with real solutions, not an unstoppable civilizational fate — Americans say they want 2.4 children on average, and the gap between desires and reality is the highest since the Great Depression. Generous baby bonuses, ending marriage penalties, and building family housing could realistically push U.S. fertility back toward replacement, and peer culture and celebrity norms move the needle too. Demographic decline is a choice, and nations that treat it as inevitable rather than reversible are surrendering without a fight.

Falling birth rates are a policy problem with real solutions, not an unstoppable civilizational fate — Americans say they want 2.4 children on average, and the gap between desires and reality is the highest since the Great Depression. Generous baby bonuses, ending marriage penalties, and building family housing could realistically push U.S. fertility back toward replacement, and peer culture and celebrity norms move the needle too. Demographic decline is a choice, and nations that treat it as inevitable rather than reversible are surrendering without a fight.

Study: Global Fertility Falls Below Replacement for First Time

Study: Global Fertility Falls Below Replacement for First Time

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Study: Global Fertility Falls Below Replacement for First Time

Study: Global Fertility Falls Below Replacement for First Time

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