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Japan "could effectively disappear by 2200 as a nation."

In 700 years, "there will be no more Japanese."

"Japan will perish by about 2056 because men are refusing to have intimate relationships with the women."

"The country's population will be just 500 by the year 3000, and just one by 3500."

"Within the next 1,750 years, the Japanese people could be no more."

"Japan may become the first country to become extinct due to the declining birth rate."

Will Japan's Population Go Extinct?

A new paper published on Aug. 10 by economists Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Patrick Norrick argues that as of 2026, humanity is likely below replacement fertility for the first time in history — a threshold they estimate at roughly 2.20 births per woman globally, compared to the commonly cited 2.1 figure used for wealthier nations.

A new paper published on Aug. 10 by economists Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Patrick Norrick argues that as of 2026, humanity is likely below replacement fertility for the first time in history — a threshold they estimate at roughly 2.20 births per woman globally, compared to the commonly cited 2.1 figure used for wealthier nations.

The paper, titled "Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World," projects world population will peak at roughly 9 billion around 2056 — nearly three decades earlier than the U.N.'s central projection of a peak near 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s.

The paper, titled "Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World," projects world population will peak at roughly 9 billion around 2056 — nearly three decades earlier than the U.N.'s central projection of a peak near 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s.

Using a single-factor model covering 236 countries from 1950 to 2023, the authors found negative fertility trends in 219 of them, with a common global fertility component that peaked in 1978. Some of the steepest declines are occurring in middle-income countries, including Thailand, Colombia, Tunisia, Algeria and Iran.

Using a single-factor model covering 236 countries from 1950 to 2023, the authors found negative fertility trends in 219 of them, with a common global fertility component that peaked in 1978. Some of the steepest declines are occurring in middle-income countries, including Thailand, Colombia, Tunisia, Algeria and Iran.

A separate Our World in Data analysis from last week notes 64 countries and territories, primarily in Europe and East Asia, had already passed peak population as of 2026, with many experiencing structural population decline. Without migration, the U.S. population would peak soon and shrink by roughly 60 million by 2100, per U.N. medium-variant projections.

A separate Our World in Data analysis from last week notes 64 countries and territories, primarily in Europe and East Asia, had already passed peak population as of 2026, with many experiencing structural population decline. Without migration, the U.S. population would peak soon and shrink by roughly 60 million by 2100, per U.N. medium-variant projections.

Fernández-Villaverde and Norrick found that actual 2024 births in 37 countries with reliable registration systems came in about 9.3% below U.N. projections, with Colombia 36.5% below, South Africa 33.4% below and Thailand 24.1% below. Only four of the 37 countries recorded more births than projected.

Fernández-Villaverde and Norrick found that actual 2024 births in 37 countries with reliable registration systems came in about 9.3% below U.N. projections, with Colombia 36.5% below, South Africa 33.4% below and Thailand 24.1% below. Only four of the 37 countries recorded more births than projected.

Africa remains the only world region where fertility currently exceeds the replacement level, with a rate of roughly 4.0 births per woman, though U.N. projections expect that to fall to 2.0 by 2100. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to account for essentially all remaining global population growth through the century.

Africa remains the only world region where fertility currently exceeds the replacement level, with a rate of roughly 4.0 births per woman, though U.N. projections expect that to fall to 2.0 by 2100. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to account for essentially all remaining global population growth through the century.

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A new paper by economists Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Patrick Norrick argues that as of 2026, humanity is likely below replacement fertility for the first time in history — a threshold they estimate at roughly 2.20 births per woman globally, compared to the commonly cited 2.1 figure used for wealthier nations.

A new paper by economists Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Patrick Norrick argues that as of 2026, humanity is likely below replacement fertility for the first time in history — a threshold they estimate at roughly 2.20 births per woman globally, compared to the commonly cited 2.1 figure used for wealthier nations.

The paper, titled "Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World," projects world population will peak at roughly 9 billion around 2056 — nearly three decades earlier than the UN's central projection of a peak near 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s.

The paper, titled "Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World," projects world population will peak at roughly 9 billion around 2056 — nearly three decades earlier than the UN's central projection of a peak near 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s.

The Our World in Data analysis notes 64 countries and territories had already passed peak population as of 2026, concentrated in Europe and East Asia. Without migration, the U.S. population would peak soon and shrink by roughly 60 million by 2100, per UN medium-variant projections.

The Our World in Data analysis notes 64 countries and territories had already passed peak population as of 2026, concentrated in Europe and East Asia. Without migration, the U.S. population would peak soon and shrink by roughly 60 million by 2100, per UN medium-variant projections.

Fernández-Villaverde and Norrick found that actual 2024 births in 37 countries with reliable registration systems came in about 9.3 percent below UN projections, with Colombia 36.5 percent below, South Africa 33.4 percent below and Thailand 24.1 percent below. Only four of the 37 countries recorded more births than projected.

Fernández-Villaverde and Norrick found that actual 2024 births in 37 countries with reliable registration systems came in about 9.3 percent below UN projections, with Colombia 36.5 percent below, South Africa 33.4 percent below and Thailand 24.1 percent below. Only four of the 37 countries recorded more births than projected.

Africa remains the only world region where fertility currently exceeds the replacement level, with a rate of roughly 4.0 births per woman, though UN projections expect that to fall to 2.0 by 2100. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to account for essentially all remaining global population growth through the century.

Africa remains the only world region where fertility currently exceeds the replacement level, with a rate of roughly 4.0 births per woman, though UN projections expect that to fall to 2.0 by 2100. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to account for essentially all remaining global population growth through the century.

Global Fertility Falls Below Replacement for First Time

ManyGlobal CountriesFertility ExperiencingFalls StructuralBelow PopulationReplacement Declinefor First Time

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