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"If the election were to be held tomorrow, his prospects of reelection would be slim."

"There is a 40% chance that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026."

"There is a 46% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."

"There is a 48% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."

"Lula’s reelection chances are right around 50%. It’s close to a coinflip."

"There is a 50% chance that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026."

"There is a 50% chance Lula will win Brazil's 2026 presidential election."

"There is a 52.40% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."

"There is a 68% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."

Will Lula Win the October 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election?

Brazil's <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/flvio-bolsonaro-launches-brazil-presidential-bid">leading right-wing presidential candidate Senator Flávio Bolsonaro</a> named conservative congressman Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate for the October election in an announcement on Wednesday.

Flavio Bolsonaro

Brazil's leading right-wing presidential candidate Senator Flávio Bolsonaro named conservative congressman Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate for the October election in an announcement on Wednesday.

Gaspar is a lawyer who served as prosecutor and attorney general in his home state of Alagoas before being elected to represent the northeastern state in the lower house of Congress in 2022. He was rapporteur of the congressional inquiry<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2025/brazil-uncovers-b-pension-fraud-social-security-chief-ousted"> into the social security agency</a>, and joined the Bolsonaros' Liberal Party in March.

Rodrigo Constantino

Gaspar is a lawyer who served as prosecutor and attorney general in his home state of Alagoas before being elected to represent the northeastern state in the lower house of Congress in 2022. He was rapporteur of the congressional inquiry into the social security agency, and joined the Bolsonaros' Liberal Party in March.

This comes one day after Gaspar was announced as the Liberal Party's candidate for the Senate in Alagoas. Yet, the party's leader Valdemar Costa Neto said on Wednesday that Gaspar had been chosen as Bolsonaro's running mate six months ago.

Alfredo Gaspar

This comes one day after Gaspar was announced as the Liberal Party's candidate for the Senate in Alagoas. Yet, the party's leader Valdemar Costa Neto said on Wednesday that Gaspar had been chosen as Bolsonaro's running mate six months ago.

The selection marks a shift from Bolsonaro's earlier pledge to choose a woman as his running mate. Six women who had been at some point floated for the presidential ticket were on his side during the announcement, including Senator Tereza Cristina and former Caixa President Daniella Marques.

The selection marks a shift from Bolsonaro's earlier pledge to choose a woman as his running mate. Six women who had been at some point floated for the presidential ticket were on his side during the announcement, including Senator Tereza Cristina and former Caixa President Daniella Marques.

Reports suggested that Tereza Cristina, of the Progressive Party, and Marques, of the Republicans' Party, were Bolsonaro's preferred choices but were blocked from the ticket as their parties were among seven center-to-right parties that decided to stay out of the presidential race.

Reports suggested that Tereza Cristina, of the Progressive Party, and Marques, of the Republicans' Party, were Bolsonaro's preferred choices but were blocked from the ticket as their parties were among seven center-to-right parties that decided to stay out of the presidential race.

A new Genial/Quaest poll released on Wednesday shows Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva advancing to a runoff in which Lula leads 44% to 39%, down from 45% to 37% in mid-July. Prediction markets currently put Lula's chances of winning reelection at around two-thirds.

A new Genial/Quaest poll released on Wednesday shows Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva advancing to a runoff in which Lula leads 44% to 39%, down from 45% to 37% in mid-July. Prediction markets currently put Lula's chances of winning reelection at around two-thirds.

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Brazil's leading right-wing presidential candidate Senator Flávio Bolsonaro named conservative congressman Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate for the October election in an announcement on Wednesday.

Gaspar is a lawyer who served as state prosecutor and state attorney general in his home state of Alagoas before being elected to represent the northeastern state in the lower house of Congress in 2022. He joined the Bolsonaros' Liberal Party in March.

Gaspar is a lawyer who served as state prosecutor and state attorney general in his home state of Alagoas before being elected to represent the northeastern state in the lower house of Congress in 2022. He joined the Bolsonaros' Liberal Party in March.

The selection marked a shift from Bolsonaro's earlier pledge to choose a woman as his running mate. Centrist parties Republicanos, PP and União Brasil all declined to join the ticket, blocking candidates such as economist Daniella Marques and Sen. Tereza Cristina.

The selection marked a shift from Bolsonaro's earlier pledge to choose a woman as his running mate. Centrist parties Republicanos, PP and União Brasil all declined to join the ticket, blocking candidates such as economist Daniella Marques and Sen. Tereza Cristina.

On Aug. 5, the day of the vice-presidential announcement, Gaspar had posted on social media confirming he was standing as a Senate candidate for Alagoas — a nomination made official at the PL's state convention before his selection as Bolsonaro's running mate was revealed.

On Aug. 5, the day of the vice-presidential announcement, Gaspar had posted on social media confirming he was standing as a Senate candidate for Alagoas — a nomination made official at the PL's state convention before his selection as Bolsonaro's running mate was revealed.

PL national president Valdemar Costa Neto said the choice of Gaspar had in fact been made six months earlier. Bolsonaro cited Gaspar's record as a public prosecutor and his role as rapporteur of a congressional inquiry into fraud at the INSS social security agency as reasons for the pick.

PL national president Valdemar Costa Neto said the choice of Gaspar had in fact been made six months earlier. Bolsonaro cited Gaspar's record as a public prosecutor and his role as rapporteur of a congressional inquiry into fraud at the INSS social security agency as reasons for the pick.

A Quaest poll conducted July 31–Aug. 3 showed Lula leading Bolsonaro 44% to 39% in a simulated runoff, narrowing from a 45%–37% gap in a mid-July survey. Prediction markets placed Lula's chances of winning the October election at roughly 65%–68%.

A Quaest poll conducted July 31–Aug. 3 showed Lula leading Bolsonaro 44% to 39% in a simulated runoff, narrowing from a 45%–37% gap in a mid-July survey. Prediction markets placed Lula's chances of winning the October election at roughly 65%–68%.

Alfredo Gaspar is exactly the kind of running mate Brazil's right needs — a fighter with a real record on public security, proud of his roots and his values. No kowtowing to identity politics pressure, no backroom deals with the centrist machine. This ticket stands for something, and that's what separates it from the usual political noise.

Alfredo Gaspar is exactly the kind of running mate Brazil's right needs — a fighter with a real record on public security, proud of his roots and his values. No kowtowing to identity politics pressure, no backroom deals with the centrist machine. This ticket stands for something, and that's what separates it from the usual political noise.

Paulo Figueiredo

Picking a running mate accused of rape and under investigation for funneling R$6 million in sketchy amendments to a mayor in Alagoas is a bold choice — boldly corrupt. Flávio Bolsonaro's political isolation reflects a candidate who can't build real alliances and doesn't transfer votes the way his father once did. This ticket is a marriage of scandal and weakness.

Picking a running mate accused of rape and under investigation for funneling R$6 million in sketchy amendments to a mayor in Alagoas is a bold choice — boldly corrupt. Flávio Bolsonaro's political isolation reflects a candidate who can't build real alliances and doesn't transfer votes the way his father once did. This ticket is a marriage of scandal and weakness.

Guilherme Boulos

Flávio Bolsonaro Picks Lawmaker Alfredo Gaspar as Running Mate for Brazil Election

Flávio Bolsonaro Picks Lawmaker Alfredo Gaspar as Running Mate for Brazil Election

Brazil

Politics

Alfredo Gaspar is exactly the kind of running mate Brazil's right needs: a fighter with a real record on public security, proud of his roots and his values. With no kowtowing to identity politics pressure and no backroom deals with the so-called Centrão machine, this ticket stands for something. This is what separates it from the usual political noise.

Alfredo Gaspar is exactly the kind of running mate Brazil's right needs: a fighter with a real record on public security, proud of his roots and his values. With no kowtowing to identity politics pressure and no backroom deals with the so-called Centrão machine, this ticket stands for something. This is what separates it from the usual political noise.

Picking Gaspar isn't a rejection of the Centrão, but rather the only choice left for Bolsonaro after getting rejected first. While the "no backroom deals" narrative sounds principled, it was only because Flávio brings nothing to the table: no vote-transfer power, no executive machinery to offer, no proven upside. Calling exclusion "independence" just rebrands rejection as strategy.

Picking Gaspar isn't a rejection of the Centrão, but rather the only choice left for Bolsonaro after getting rejected first. While the "no backroom deals" narrative sounds principled, it was only because Flávio brings nothing to the table: no vote-transfer power, no executive machinery to offer, no proven upside. Calling exclusion "independence" just rebrands rejection as strategy.

There's a 54% chance that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 54% chance that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

*** GETTY *** Ton Molina/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Flávio Bolsonaro Picks Lawmaker Alfredo Gaspar as Running Mate for Brazil Election

Flávio Bolsonaro Picks Lawmaker Alfredo Gaspar as Running Mate for Brazil Election

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Flávio Bolsonaro Picks Lawmaker Alfredo Gaspar as Running Mate for Brazil Election

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