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SpaceX rocket crashed on the moon, scientists say: 100% confidence - National

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"Starship will never be going to Mars."

"Prediction: Elon Musk & SpaceX will miss the late 2026 launch window for Mars."

"I'm willing to bet at this point that no Starship is heading to Mars in '26."

“It's really hard for me to be that optimistic [about a 2026 Mars launch] based on the recent Starship test results.”

"Starship may not be ready for this [2026] window but you can count on it making the next window in 2028."

"We've probably got about a 50% chance of sending ships from Earth to Mars at the end of next year [2026]."

"2026 for unmanned ships to Mars seems perfectly feasible now."

Will SpaceX Launch an Unmanned Starship Mission to Mars in 2026?

The upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2025/spacex-launches-two-private-lunar-landers-in-historic-mission">launched on Jan. 15, 2025,</a> to carry two commercial lunar landers to the moon, is believed to have struck the lunar surface near Einstein Crater on Wednesday at approximately 5,400 mph. While visual confirmation of the crash isn't expected until next week, scientists said "with 100% confidence that the impact occurred at roughly the predicted time and place."

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The upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, launched on Jan. 15, 2025, to carry two commercial lunar landers to the moon, is believed to have struck the lunar surface near Einstein Crater on Wednesday at approximately 5,400 mph. While visual confirmation of the crash isn't expected until next week, scientists said "with 100% confidence that the impact occurred at roughly the predicted time and place."

NASA confirmed the rocket stage had a 100% chance of impacting the moon after its Center for Near Earth Object Studies verified the trajectory, which was first identified by independent astronomers using publicly available data.

NASA confirmed the rocket stage had a 100% chance of impacting the moon after its Center for Near Earth Object Studies verified the trajectory, which was first identified by independent astronomers using publicly available data.

The impact was expected to create a crater roughly 60 to 100 feet wide and up to 16 feet deep, ejecting dust and rock across the lunar surface. A meteoroid with equivalent energy strikes the moon approximately every six days.

The impact was expected to create a crater roughly 60 to 100 feet wide and up to 16 feet deep, ejecting dust and rock across the lunar surface. A meteoroid with equivalent energy strikes the moon approximately every six days.

SpaceX director Julianna Scheiman said the rocket stage followed "the appropriate rules and regulations" after launch, but "a mixture of solar activity and gravity forces" placed it on a collision course with the moon.

SpaceX director Julianna Scheiman said the rocket stage followed "the appropriate rules and regulations" after launch, but "a mixture of solar activity and gravity forces" placed it on a collision course with the moon.

This would mark only the second known instance of rocket debris unintentionally striking the moon, after a Chinese rocket stage hit the lunar far side in March 2022. NASA and SpaceX are discussing ways to prevent future such impacts.

This would mark only the second known instance of rocket debris unintentionally striking the moon, after a Chinese rocket stage hit the lunar far side in March 2022. NASA and SpaceX are discussing ways to prevent future such impacts.

Scientists said the impact offers a rare calibration opportunity, as the rocket's known mass, speed and trajectory allow researchers to test models of lunar crater formation and ejecta behavior to inform future crewed missions.

Scientists said the impact offers a rare calibration opportunity, as the rocket's known mass, speed and trajectory allow researchers to test models of lunar crater formation and ejecta behavior to inform future crewed missions.

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The upper stage of a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2025/spacex-launches-two-private-lunar-landers-in-historic-mission">SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, launched Jan. 15, 2025,</a> to carry two commercial lunar landers to the moon, struck the lunar surface near Einstein Crater on Aug. 5, 2026, at approximately 5,400 mph.

The upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, launched Jan. 15, 2025, to carry two commercial lunar landers to the moon, struck the lunar surface near Einstein Crater on Aug. 5, 2026, at approximately 5,400 mph.

The collision was only the second known instance of rocket debris unintentionally striking the moon, after a Chinese rocket stage hit the lunar far side in March 2022. NASA and SpaceX are discussing ways to prevent future such impacts.

The collision was only the second known instance of rocket debris unintentionally striking the moon, after a Chinese rocket stage hit the lunar far side in March 2022. NASA and SpaceX are discussing ways to prevent future such impacts.

Scientists said the impact offered a rare calibration opportunity, as the rocket's known mass, speed and trajectory allow researchers to test models of lunar crater formation and ejecta behavior to inform future crewed missions.

Scientists said the impact offered a rare calibration opportunity, as the rocket's known mass, speed and trajectory allow researchers to test models of lunar crater formation and ejecta behavior to inform future crewed missions.

This accidental lunar crash is genuinely exciting science — researchers finally get to study a well-documented impact on the Moon with known size, speed and mass. The ejecta plume could rise 60 miles high and stay visible through telescopes for several minutes, offering rare data on crater formation and lunar dust behavior. This kind of controlled natural experiment is exactly what sharpens models that will protect future astronauts on the surface.

This accidental lunar crash is genuinely exciting science — researchers finally get to study a well-documented impact on the Moon with known size, speed and mass. The ejecta plume could rise 60 miles high and stay visible through telescopes for several minutes, offering rare data on crater formation and lunar dust behavior. This kind of controlled natural experiment is exactly what sharpens models that will protect future astronauts on the surface.

A four-ton hunk of space junk slamming into the Moon at 5,400 mph is a stark reminder that reckless disposal of rocket stages has real consequences. SpaceX lacked enough fuel to properly deorbit this stage, and now the lunar surface permanently bears the mark of that failure. With astronauts and lunar bases on the horizon, leaving spent rocket stages in chaotic orbits is a dangerous habit the industry cannot afford to keep.

A four-ton hunk of space junk slamming into the Moon at 5,400 mph is a stark reminder that reckless disposal of rocket stages has real consequences. SpaceX lacked enough fuel to properly deorbit this stage, and now the lunar surface permanently bears the mark of that failure. With astronauts and lunar bases on the horizon, leaving spent rocket stages in chaotic orbits is a dangerous habit the industry cannot afford to keep.

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There is a 5% chance that space debris will cause at least one fatality in space before 2035, according to the metaculus prediction community.

There is a 5% chance that space debris will cause at least one fatality in space before 2035, according to the metaculus prediction community.

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SpaceX Rocket Stage Slams Moon at 5,400 MPH

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SpaceX Rocket Stage Slams Moon at 5,400 MPH

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This accidental lunar crash is genuinely exciting science — researchers finally get to study a well-documented impact on the Moon with known size, speed and mass. The ejecta plume likely rose 60 miles high, offering rare data on crater formation and lunar dust behavior. This is exactly what sharpens models that will protect future astronauts on the surface.

This accidental lunar crash is genuinely exciting science — researchers finally get to study a well-documented impact on the Moon with known size, speed and mass. The ejecta plume likely rose 60 miles high, offering rare data on crater formation and lunar dust behavior. This is exactly what sharpens models that will protect future astronauts on the surface.

This is a stark reminder that reckless disposal of rocket stages has real consequences. SpaceX lacked enough fuel to properly deorbit this stage, and now the lunar surface permanently bears the mark of that failure. With astronauts and lunar bases on the horizon, leaving spent rocket stages in chaotic orbits is a dangerous habit the industry cannot afford to keep.

This is a stark reminder that reckless disposal of rocket stages has real consequences. SpaceX lacked enough fuel to properly deorbit this stage, and now the lunar surface permanently bears the mark of that failure. With astronauts and lunar bases on the horizon, leaving spent rocket stages in chaotic orbits is a dangerous habit the industry cannot afford to keep.

SpaceX Rocket Stage Crashes Into Moon

SpaceX Rocket Stage SlamsCrashes Into Moon at 5,400 MPH

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SpaceX Rocket Stage Crashes Into Moon

SpaceX Rocket Stage SlamsCrashes Into Moon at 5,400 MPH

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