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US states sue to block Trump tariffs impacting dozens of countries

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Good Judgment

David Schefter

"We expect to win."

"Odds are the Trump administration’s top lawyer defending the president’s tariffs Wednesday before the justices did not go home very optimistic about his chances [securing a favorable ruling]."

"My guess—and it is a guess—is that at least two, if not all three, will come out against the president’s position, producing a 5–4 or 6–3 decision in favor of the plaintiffs to some degree."

"Good Judgment Project Superforecasters assigned a 65–66% probability that the Court would rule reciprocal and trafficking tariffs unauthorized or unconstitutional."

"There is a 27% chance that the US Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump's tariffs."

"Expectations are high that the U.S. Supreme Court will rule against the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) – the 1970s legislation that allows a president to declare a national economic emergency – to justify tariffs."

"There is a 23% chance that the US Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump's tarriffs."

"There is a 78% chance SCOTUS will strike down Trump tariffs."

"Our initial assessment of the pointed questions posed by the majority of justices is that the Supreme Court will likely decide that the Executive branch may not impose import duties (i.e., tariffs) based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (‘IEEPA’)."

Will the Supreme Court rule against Trump's IEEPA tariff authority?

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Robert Kuttner

Jamieson Greer

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Sasha Rogelberg

"Maybe they'll get repaid, but I have no hope they're going to refund me."

“It would seem to be very complex and, by extension, probably not something that’s going to happen very quickly. We’ll certainly avail ourselves of the opportunity that we have to get a refund, but when that happens, remains to be seen.”

″[Importers] are pessimistic that the government is going to make this easy. They’re anticipating that the government is going to make it as difficult as possible to get their money back.”

"Officials have warned the process could be complicated given the scale."

"US companies that paid Trump-era IEEPA tariffs may be entitled to significant cash refunds — but only if they move quickly, get aligned with trade, and have their data act together"

"It’s not immediately clear how much each importer would recoup, though analysts suggest companies could receive billions of dollars."

"The Trump administration agreed to abide by the court ruling and announced plans for a system for people to collect."

"There is an 82% chance that the Court will force Trump to refund tarrifs."

"CBP has stated that importers and authorized brokers should anticipate valid IEEPA refunds to be issued within 60-90 days following acceptance of the CAPE Declaration. "

"We project that reversing the IEEPA tariffs will generate up to $175 billion in refunds."

Will the Trump Administration Disburse Full Tariff Refunds to Importers?

Twenty-five states sued the Trump administration on Monday in the U.S. Court of International Trade in New York, challenging tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on goods from 60 trading partners that together account for 99.4% of U.S. imports.

Twenty-five states sued the Trump administration on Monday in the U.S. Court of International Trade in New York, challenging tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on goods from 60 trading partners that together account for 99.4% of U.S. imports.

The tariffs, imposed under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, took effect July 24 — the same day a previous temporary 10% global tariff expired — after the U.S. Trade Representative investigated 60 economies over alleged failures to curb imports made with forced labor.

The tariffs, imposed under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, took effect July 24 — the same day a previous temporary 10% global tariff expired — after the U.S. Trade Representative investigated 60 economies over alleged failures to curb imports made with forced labor.

The states, 23 of which have Democratic governors and two — Nevada and Vermont — led by Republicans, are asking the court to declare the tariffs unlawful, halt their implementation and order refunds of duties already paid.

The states, 23 of which have Democratic governors and two — Nevada and Vermont — led by Republicans, are asking the court to declare the tariffs unlawful, halt their implementation and order refunds of duties already paid.

The states argued in their filing that the U.S. Trade Representative completed investigations into 60 economies in roughly two and a half months, a process that typically takes over a year for even a single economy.

The states argued in their filing that the U.S. Trade Representative completed investigations into 60 economies in roughly two and a half months, a process that typically takes over a year for even a single economy.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai defended the tariffs, saying the U.S. was "using its lawful authority" to address unfair trade practices and that "Section 301 tariffs have proven to be a legally durable tool since the president's first term."

White House spokesperson Kush Desai defended the tariffs, saying the U.S. was "using its lawful authority" to address unfair trade practices and that "Section 301 tariffs have proven to be a legally durable tool since the president's first term."

The lawsuit follows the Supreme Court's February ruling that struck down Trump's earlier tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a decision that triggered refunds to importers and prompted the administration to pursue new legal avenues for tariffs.

The lawsuit follows the Supreme Court's February ruling that struck down Trump's earlier tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a decision that triggered refunds to importers and prompted the administration to pursue new legal avenues for tariffs.

25 States Sue Trump Over New Import Tariffs

US25 statesStates sueSue to block Trump tariffsOver impactingNew dozensImport of countriesTariffs

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25 States Sue Trump Over New Import Tariffs

US25 statesStates sueSue to block Trump tariffsOver impactingNew dozensImport of countriesTariffs

The Controversies

Hassett

Center

Reinsch

Polymarket

Groot

Byrnes

Johnson

Rainey

Seligman

Business

Reuters

Kuttner

Polymarket

CBIZ

PWBM

Go Deeper

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