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"There is a 40% chance that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026."

"There is a 46% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."

"There is a 48% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."

"Lula’s reelection chances are right around 50%. It’s close to a coinflip."

"There is a 50% chance Lula will win Brazil's 2026 presidential election."

"There is a 50% chance that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026."

"There is a 52.40% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."

"There is a 68% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."

Will Lula Win the October 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election?

Brazilian Supreme Court Justice André Mendonça authorized on Thursday the country's federal police to open an inquiry into Fabio Luis Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha, the son of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, over suspicions of corruption and influence peddling, multiple news outlets reported.

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Brazilian Supreme Court Justice André Mendonça authorized on Thursday the country's federal police to open an inquiry into Fabio Luis Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha, the son of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, over suspicions of corruption and influence peddling, multiple news outlets reported.

This comes as police asked the Supreme Court for permission to launch an inquiry into whether Lulinha worked to help medical cannabis company World Cannabis in dealings with Brazil's Health Ministry by contacting federal government officials, including those from the presidential office.

This comes as police asked the Supreme Court for permission to launch an inquiry into whether Lulinha worked to help medical cannabis company World Cannabis in dealings with Brazil's Health Ministry by contacting federal government officials, including those from the presidential office.

The request was submitted to the Supreme Court last week and assigned, by lottery, to Mendonça on Wednesday after the Prosecutor-General's Office issued an advisory opinion saying that the alleged crimes had no direct connection with the so-called Operation No Discount.

The request was submitted to the Supreme Court last week and assigned, by lottery, to Mendonça on Wednesday after the Prosecutor-General's Office issued an advisory opinion saying that the alleged crimes had no direct connection with the so-called Operation No Discount.

Justice Mendonça granted federal police permission earlier this year to probe Lulinha into suspected improper payments linked to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2025/brazil-uncovers-b-pension-fraud-social-security-chief-ousted">the alleged billion-dollar pension fraud scheme being investigated under the aforementioned operation.</a>

Justice Mendonça granted federal police permission earlier this year to probe Lulinha into suspected improper payments linked to the alleged billion-dollar pension fraud scheme being investigated under the aforementioned operation.

Lula said in an interview on Brazilian podcast Inteligência Ltda. on Thursday that his eldest son would receive no special treatment, adding that Lulinha would return from Spain, where he currently resides, to prove his innocence if he goes on trial.

Lula said in an interview on Brazilian podcast Inteligência Ltda. on Thursday that his eldest son would receive no special treatment, adding that Lulinha would return from Spain, where he currently resides, to prove his innocence if he goes on trial.

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Brazilian Supreme Court Justice André Mendonça authorized federal police on July 30 to open an inquiry into Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha, over suspected corruption and influence peddling linked to medical cannabis commercialization programs tied to the Health Ministry.

Brazilian Supreme Court Justice André Mendonça authorized federal police on July 30 to open an inquiry into Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha, over suspected corruption and influence peddling linked to medical cannabis commercialization programs tied to the Health Ministry.

Investigators suspect Lulinha worked alongside businesswoman Roberta Luchsinger to benefit World Cannabis, a company linked to lobbyist Antonio Carlos Camilo Antunes, known as "Careca do INSS," in dealings with the Health Ministry and the presidential office.

Investigators suspect Lulinha worked alongside businesswoman Roberta Luchsinger to benefit World Cannabis, a company linked to lobbyist Antonio Carlos Camilo Antunes, known as "Careca do INSS," in dealings with the Health Ministry and the presidential office.

The Federal Police's request was submitted to the Supreme Court during the judiciary recess and initially reviewed by Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The attorney general's office then recommended the case be assigned by lottery, resulting in Mendonça taking over as rapporteur.

The Federal Police's request was submitted to the Supreme Court during the judiciary recess and initially reviewed by Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The attorney general's office then recommended the case be assigned by lottery, resulting in Mendonça taking over as rapporteur.

Lulinha was already under investigation in a separate inquiry related to alleged fraud involving unauthorized deductions from pensions administered by Brazil's National Social Security Institute. The new inquiry is treated as a distinct proceeding from that earlier case.

Lulinha was already under investigation in a separate inquiry related to alleged fraud involving unauthorized deductions from pensions administered by Brazil's National Social Security Institute. The new inquiry is treated as a distinct proceeding from that earlier case.

Luchsinger reportedly received 1.5 million reais from Antunes in five installments of 300,000 reais each for consultancy work aimed at securing a Health Ministry contract to supply cannabis-based medications through Brazil's public health system, though the initiative did not advance.

Luchsinger reportedly received 1.5 million reais from Antunes in five installments of 300,000 reais each for consultancy work aimed at securing a Health Ministry contract to supply cannabis-based medications through Brazil's public health system, though the initiative did not advance.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said his son would receive no special treatment, stating: "If he does something wrong, he knows what I went through." Lula added that if Lulinha is judged, he will return to Brazil from Spain, where he currently resides, to prove his innocence.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said his son would receive no special treatment, stating: "If he does something wrong, he knows what I went through." Lula added that if Lulinha is judged, he will return to Brazil from Spain, where he currently resides, to prove his innocence.

The probe into Lulinha is a direct test of whether Brazil's justice system applies equally to the powerful. A Supreme Court justice found enough cause to authorize a formal inquiry into suspected influence peddling tied to the Health Ministry and the presidential office itself. The Workers Party built its brand on fighting corruption, and that claim rings hollow when the president's own son is under investigation.

The probe into Lulinha is a direct test of whether Brazil's justice system applies equally to the powerful. A Supreme Court justice found enough cause to authorize a formal inquiry into suspected influence peddling tied to the Health Ministry and the presidential office itself. The Workers Party built its brand on fighting corruption, and that claim rings hollow when the president's own son is under investigation.

The new inquiry into Lulinha looks more like a fishing expedition than a serious investigation — the first probe found zero evidence of illegal payments despite examining nearly R$20 million in transactions. Opening a brand-new case right before an election, after the original investigation came up empty, raises serious questions about whether this is justice or political theater.

The new inquiry into Lulinha looks more like a fishing expedition than a serious investigation — the first probe found zero evidence of illegal payments despite examining nearly R$20 million in transactions. Opening a brand-new case right before an election, after the original investigation came up empty, raises serious questions about whether this is justice or political theater.

Both Lulinha and Flávio Bolsonaro are now under investigation, and each political camp is celebrating the other's scandal like it's a trophy. But this cycle just deepens public disgust with the entire system, reinforcing the idea that every politician is rotten and that elections are just contests between rejection rates — which is really just a democracy running low on real choices.

Both Lulinha and Flávio Bolsonaro are now under investigation, and each political camp is celebrating the other's scandal like it's a trophy. But this cycle just deepens public disgust with the entire system, reinforcing the idea that every politician is rotten and that elections are just contests between rejection rates — which is really just a democracy running low on real choices.

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Brazil's Supreme Court Justice Authorizes Influence-Peddling Probe Into Lula's Son

Brazil's Supreme Court Justice Authorizes Influence-Peddling Probe Into Lula's Son

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The new inquiry into Lulinha looks more like a fishing expedition than a serious investigation, especially as the first Operation No Discount found zero evidence of illegal payments despite examining nearly 20 million reais in transactions. Opening a brand-new case right before an election, after the original investigation came up empty, raises serious questions about whether this is justice or political theater.

The new inquiry into Lulinha looks more like a fishing expedition than a serious investigation, especially as the first Operation No Discount found zero evidence of illegal payments despite examining nearly 20 million reais in transactions. Opening a brand-new case right before an election, after the original investigation came up empty, raises serious questions about whether this is justice or political theater.

This is a direct test of whether accountability applies to the powerful ahead of the presidential election. Scrutiny of Lula's inner circle has long been dismissed as persecution while rigor was demanded only against rivals. That double standard is wearing thin.  Claims of a fishing expedition and cries of bad timing don't erase that police and a Supreme Court justice found sufficient grounds to open this probe.

This is a direct test of whether accountability applies to the powerful ahead of the presidential election. Scrutiny of Lula's inner circle has long been dismissed as persecution while rigor was demanded only against rivals. That double standard is wearing thin. Claims of a fishing expedition and cries of bad timing don't erase that police and a Supreme Court justice found sufficient grounds to open this probe.

With both Lula's and Jair Bolsonaro's firstborns now under investigation, each political camp is celebrating the other's scandal like it's a trophy. But this cycle just deepens public disgust with the entire political system, reinforcing the idea that every politician is rotten and that elections are just contests between rejection rates, which is really just a democracy running low on real choices.

With both Lula's and Jair Bolsonaro's firstborns now under investigation, each political camp is celebrating the other's scandal like it's a trophy. But this cycle just deepens public disgust with the entire political system, reinforcing the idea that every politician is rotten and that elections are just contests between rejection rates, which is really just a democracy running low on real choices.

Brazil's Supreme Court Justice Authorizes Influence-Peddling Probe Into Lula's Son

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