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"There is a 40% chance that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026."

"There is a 46% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."

"There is a 48% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."

"Lula’s reelection chances are right around 50%. It’s close to a coinflip."

"There is a 50% chance Lula will win Brazil's 2026 presidential election."

"There is a 50% chance that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026."

"There is a 52.40% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."

"There is a 68% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."

Will Lula Win the October 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election?

Brazilian Supreme Court Justice André Mendonça authorized federal police on July 30 to open an inquiry into Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha, over suspected corruption and influence peddling linked to medical cannabis commercialization programs tied to the Health Ministry.

Brazilian Supreme Court Justice André Mendonça authorized federal police on July 30 to open an inquiry into Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha, over suspected corruption and influence peddling linked to medical cannabis commercialization programs tied to the Health Ministry.

Investigators suspect Lulinha worked alongside businesswoman Roberta Luchsinger to benefit World Cannabis, a company linked to lobbyist Antonio Carlos Camilo Antunes, known as "Careca do INSS," in dealings with the Health Ministry and the presidential office.

Investigators suspect Lulinha worked alongside businesswoman Roberta Luchsinger to benefit World Cannabis, a company linked to lobbyist Antonio Carlos Camilo Antunes, known as "Careca do INSS," in dealings with the Health Ministry and the presidential office.

The Federal Police's request was submitted to the Supreme Court during the judiciary recess and initially reviewed by Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The attorney general's office then recommended the case be assigned by lottery, resulting in Mendonça taking over as rapporteur.

The Federal Police's request was submitted to the Supreme Court during the judiciary recess and initially reviewed by Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The attorney general's office then recommended the case be assigned by lottery, resulting in Mendonça taking over as rapporteur.

Lulinha was already under investigation in a separate inquiry related to alleged fraud involving unauthorized deductions from pensions administered by Brazil's National Social Security Institute. The new inquiry is treated as a distinct proceeding from that earlier case.

Blog do Noblat

Lulinha was already under investigation in a separate inquiry related to alleged fraud involving unauthorized deductions from pensions administered by Brazil's National Social Security Institute. The new inquiry is treated as a distinct proceeding from that earlier case.

Luchsinger reportedly received 1.5 million reais from Antunes in five installments of 300,000 reais each for consultancy work aimed at securing a Health Ministry contract to supply cannabis-based medications through Brazil's public health system, though the initiative did not advance.

Luchsinger reportedly received 1.5 million reais from Antunes in five installments of 300,000 reais each for consultancy work aimed at securing a Health Ministry contract to supply cannabis-based medications through Brazil's public health system, though the initiative did not advance.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said his son would receive no special treatment, stating: "If he does something wrong, he knows what I went through." Lula added that if Lulinha is judged, he will return to Brazil from Spain, where he currently resides, to prove his innocence.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said his son would receive no special treatment, stating: "If he does something wrong, he knows what I went through." Lula added that if Lulinha is judged, he will return to Brazil from Spain, where he currently resides, to prove his innocence.