This deal is more wishful thinking than real diplomacy — neither Hamas nor Israel confirmed any agreement, and the timeline for actual disarmament stretches up to 300 days with no specifics. Heavy weapons and tunnel networks aren't even fully addressed in the near term, meaning Hamas keeps its real power intact. Celebrating this as a breakthrough before anything is signed or verified is dangerously premature.

There'sPalestinian afactions 3%in chanceGaza have made clear that thethey will not disarm until Israel withdraws from Gaza. warFurthermore, Israel will endnot andbe significantinvolved progressin the disarmament process, if it even occurs, as the weapons will be madetransferred towardsto a two-statePalestinian solutionnational beforecommittee. 2030,One accordingshould toalso note that several factions have expressed reservations regarding the Metaculusplan predictionand communityare waiting to see what happens.