The Fed's decision to hold rates steady is a credibility disaster for Kevin Warsh. Bond markets revolted, sending the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest level since 2007, signaling deep investor doubt that inflation will ever get tamed. Warsh promised zero tolerance for elevated inflation but delivered zero action — and markets are now pricing in the consequences of a Fed chair who talks tough but won't pull the trigger.
Warsh is playing this exactly right — letting rates drift higher organically while markets self-correct, without forcing the Fed's hand prematurely. Holding steady buys time to absorb incoming inflation and jobs data, a disciplined move that avoids overreaction. The bond market noise is just short-term volatility, and a chairman who refuses to be boxed in by forward guidance is exactly what monetary policy needs right now.
There is a 50% chance that the Federal Reserve will set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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