The Business Times

Hes a brilliant guy: Trump stands by his US Fed pick despite no rate cuts

Breitbart

A Divided Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady

CanarinhoFNC

thegreatplunger

The New York Times

Fed Meeting Rates Kevin Warsh

CNBC

Analysis: Fed Chairman Warsh's credibility in question after leaving interest rates unchanged

The Washington Times

Fed leaves interest rates alone but three members dissent, putting Chair Kevin Warsh in a tight spot

PBS NewsHour

News Wrap Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady But Some Vote For Increase

Guardian

Fed holds interest rates steady despite Trumps renewed calls to lower them

Firstpost

Trump Backs Fed Chief Kevin Warsh No Rate Cuts Interest Rates 14034799.Html

Daily Wire

Fed Holds Rates After Its Most Unpredictable Meeting Of The Year

Fed holds interest rates steady after cliffhanger meeting, but three officials dissent

New York Post

Dow plummets 1,150 points on inflation worries in wake of Fed interest rate vote

AlterNet

Rebellion against 'oblivious' Trump tanks Dow in worst day of the year

The Economic Times

Trump stands by Warsh despite Fed's rate hold

The American Prospect

Trumps New Fed Chair Deserts Trump

Metaculus

US Fed Sets Negative Target Interest Rate

Jerome Powell

Goldman Sachs

Matthew Martin

Polymarket

Kalshi

Mark Zandi

The Wall Street Journal

Binance

JPMorgan

Adam Turnquist

NerdWallet

RSM US

Hady Farag

John M Veitch

Gregory Daco

Jacob Weinstein

Dean Lyulkin

Dan North

World Oil

Moody's Analytics

Heather Long

"Our base case is no recession for 2026."

"Kalshi places the odds of a recession in 2026 at 25%."

"There is a 27% chance that the US will face a recession by the end of 2026."

"Because of those policy changes and tailwinds, we have reduced our probability of a recession over the next 12 months to 30% from our previous estimate of 40%."

"Looking at the economy, J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts a 35% probability of a U.S. and global recession in 2026, and sticky inflation will likely remain a prevailing theme."

"Moody’s Analytics model forecasts a 49% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months, the closest probability in years."

"Against this backdrop, we now place the probability of recession at 40%, but stress that those odds could rapidly rise in the event of a more prolonged or severe Middle East conflict."

“There’s real risk of recession [in 2026]."

“If oil prices remain elevated for much longer (weeks and not months), a recession will be difficult to avoid.”

“People are preparing themselves for the fact that we are already in a recession now or that there is a high likelihood we will soon be in one.”

Will the US Economy Enter a Recession in 2026?

The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% on July 29, marking the fifth consecutive meeting at which rates were left unchanged.

The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% on July 29, marking the fifth consecutive meeting at which rates were left unchanged.

Three regional Fed presidents — Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Lorie Logan of Dallas — dissented in favor of a quarter-point rate hike, the first time since 2016 that three officials dissented in the same direction.

Three regional Fed presidents — Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Lorie Logan of Dallas — dissented in favor of a quarter-point rate hike, the first time since 2016 that three officials dissented in the same direction.

Futures markets assigned better than a 60% probability of a quarter-point rate increase at the Fed's September meeting, with the prediction market Kalshi placing chances of a rate cut by end of 2026 at just 4%.

Futures markets assigned better than a 60% probability of a quarter-point rate increase at the Fed's September meeting, with the prediction market Kalshi placing chances of a rate cut by end of 2026 at just 4%.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said at his post-meeting press conference that any central banker who sees "underlying inflation moving higher" is "more inclined to tighten policy," signaling a hawkish stance at odds with President Trump's calls for rate cuts.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said at his post-meeting press conference that any central banker who sees "underlying inflation moving higher" is "more inclined to tighten policy," signaling a hawkish stance at odds with President Trump's calls for rate cuts.

Trump called Warsh "a brilliant guy" and attributed the Fed's decision to hold rates steady to what he described as a "political board," stopping short of blaming Warsh directly for the outcome.

Trump called Warsh "a brilliant guy" and attributed the Fed's decision to hold rates steady to what he described as a "political board," stopping short of blaming Warsh directly for the outcome.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1,100 points following the Fed's rate decision, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also closing sharply lower amid inflation concerns and a roughly 6% spike in oil prices tied to the Iran conflict.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1,100 points following the Fed's rate decision, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also closing sharply lower amid inflation concerns and a roughly 6% spike in oil prices tied to the Iran conflict.

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AI: Jobs and the Economy

US Election Issue: Economy