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Moreincommon_

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Three national polls published in late July 2026 showed Labour overtaking or drawing level with Reform UK for the first time in over a year, a shift attributed to what commentators have called the "Burnham bounce" following Andy Burnham's first week as prime minister.

Three national polls published in late July 2026 showed Labour overtaking or drawing level with Reform UK for the first time in over a year, a shift attributed to what commentators have called the "Burnham bounce" following Andy Burnham's first week as prime minister.

A More in Common survey of 2,061 adults conducted July 24-27 put Labour on 28%, up four points, while Reform fell two points to 24%. The Conservatives held steady at 22%, the Liberal Democrats rose one point to 12% and the Greens dropped three points to 8%.

Guardian

A More in Common survey of 2,061 adults conducted July 24-27 put Labour on 28%, up four points, while Reform fell two points to 24%. The Conservatives held steady at 22%, the Liberal Democrats rose one point to 12% and the Greens dropped three points to 8%.

A Survation poll published July 28 placed Labour on 26%, up one point, with Reform on 24%, down two points. It was the first Labour lead in a Survation poll since May 2025 and the party's highest vote share in over a year, with 34% of respondents saying Burnham would make the best prime minister.

A Survation poll published July 28 placed Labour on 26%, up one point, with Reform on 24%, down two points. It was the first Labour lead in a Survation poll since May 2025 and the party's highest vote share in over a year, with 34% of respondents saying Burnham would make the best prime minister.

A YouGov poll for The Times and Sky News recorded Labour and Reform UK tied at 22%, with the Conservatives on 21%. Labour's figure was its highest in the YouGov tracker since September 2025 and up six points from a low of 16% recorded in May, while Reform's share was its lowest since March 2025.

A YouGov poll for The Times and Sky News recorded Labour and Reform UK tied at 22%, with the Conservatives on 21%. Labour's figure was its highest in the YouGov tracker since September 2025 and up six points from a low of 16% recorded in May, while Reform's share was its lowest since March 2025.

Professor Sir John Curtice noted that Labour gained around two polling points when Starmer announced his resignation and a further four points in Burnham's first week as prime minister. He cautioned that new prime ministers routinely receive a polling boost, citing gains of four to seven points for recent predecessors.

Professor Sir John Curtice noted that Labour gained around two polling points when Starmer announced his resignation and a further four points in Burnham's first week as prime minister. He cautioned that new prime ministers routinely receive a polling boost, citing gains of four to seven points for recent predecessors.

Reform UK's polling decline coincided with ongoing investigations into a £5m donation to Farage from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne and payments linked to convicted fraudster George Cottrell. Since Farage called his Clacton by-election on July 6, Reform had dropped an average of three points in the polls.

Reform UK's polling decline coincided with ongoing investigations into a £5m donation to Farage from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne and payments linked to convicted fraudster George Cottrell. Since Farage called his Clacton by-election on July 6, Reform had dropped an average of three points in the polls.

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A Survation poll published July 28 put Labour at 26% — up one point — and Reform UK at 24%, down two points, marking Labour's first lead in a Survation survey since May 2025 and its highest vote share in over a year.

A Survation poll published July 28 put Labour at 26% — up one point — and Reform UK at 24%, down two points, marking Labour's first lead in a Survation survey since May 2025 and its highest vote share in over a year.

A More in Common survey of 2,061 adults conducted July 24-27 placed Labour at 28%, up four points, while Reform fell two points to 24% — Labour's first lead in the tracker since March 2025 and its highest vote share since November 2024.

A More in Common survey of 2,061 adults conducted July 24-27 placed Labour at 28%, up four points, while Reform fell two points to 24% — Labour's first lead in the tracker since March 2025 and its highest vote share since November 2024.

A YouGov poll for The Times and Sky News recorded Labour and Reform UK level at 22%, with the Conservatives on 21%. Labour's figure was its highest in the YouGov tracker since September 2025, up six points from a low of 16% in May, while Reform's was its lowest since March 2025.

A YouGov poll for The Times and Sky News recorded Labour and Reform UK level at 22%, with the Conservatives on 21%. Labour's figure was its highest in the YouGov tracker since September 2025, up six points from a low of 16% in May, while Reform's was its lowest since March 2025.

The Survation poll found 34% of respondents believed Burnham would make the best prime minister, compared to 22% for Farage and 19% for Kemi Badenoch. A separate YouGov head-to-head poll found 48% preferred Burnham over Farage, who was backed by 22%.

The Survation poll found 34% of respondents believed Burnham would make the best prime minister, compared to 22% for Farage and 19% for Kemi Badenoch. A separate YouGov head-to-head poll found 48% preferred Burnham over Farage, who was backed by 22%.

Across all three polls, the Conservatives placed third, with Survation recording a two-point gain to 21%, YouGov showing them at 21% and More in Common putting them unchanged at 22% — their first sustained average of around 20% in roughly a year.

Across all three polls, the Conservatives placed third, with Survation recording a two-point gain to 21%, YouGov showing them at 21% and More in Common putting them unchanged at 22% — their first sustained average of around 20% in roughly a year.

Labour Surges Ahead of Reform in UK Polls

Labour Surges Ahead of Reform in UK Polls

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Labour Surges Ahead of Reform in UK Polls

Labour Surges Ahead of Reform in UK Polls

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