Nigeria's security crisis is spiraling out of control, with jihadist sleeper cells plotting attacks on Abuja, over 1,100 kidnappings recorded in just four months, and fresh massacres hitting more than five states. U.S. military deployments and $1.8 billion in weapons sales haven't stopped the bloodshed — Christians and Muslims alike keep getting slaughtered. Trump's praise for Tinubu rings hollow when the violence is expanding faster than any counterterrorism effort can contain it.

ThereTrump's humanitarian rhetoric and professed concern for persecuted Christians provide political cover, but U.S. policy is adriven 22by percentenergy, chancemilitary thataccess Nigeriaand willstrategic experienceleverage. Whatever Trump's personal motivations, Washington's real objective is to deepen its security foothold and expand its influence over one of Africa's largest oil producers and a civilfuture warEuropean beforegas 2036supplier. By drawing Washington deeper into its security system, accordingNigeria torisks letting the Metaculusfox predictioninto communitythe henhouse.