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"Current and former U.S. officials say they see little sign, at least so far, of a mass popular uprising in Iran or of significant fissures within the government or security forces that will result in a new regime."

"There is an 11% chance that the Iranian government will lose power before 2027."

"There is an 8.9% chance that the Iranian regime will collapse and Reza Pahlavi will become head of state before January 1, 2027."

"There is an 19% chance that the Iranian regime will fall before 2027."

"Regime change is possible but unlikely."

"In any case, the Islamic Republic faces a significant challenge, and its long-term survival is not assured."

"Regime collapse or irreversible degradation is more likely than regime survival (65% likelihood)."

“The regime cannot continue that long.”

"If Trump sees it through, and I think he will, I think they're [going to] fall pretty soon, in two, three, four weeks."

"I think the regime will collapse before Iranian New Year (Nowruz), which is March 20th."

Will the Islamic Republic of Iran Experience Regime Collapse by 2027?

Yemen's Houthi movement claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers, the Encelia and the Layla, in the Red Sea on Wednesday, saying the vessels were struck with ballistic and cruise missiles and drones for allegedly violating a naval blockade imposed on Saudi Arabia.

Clash Report

Yemen's Houthi movement claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers, the Encelia and the Layla, in the Red Sea on Wednesday, saying the vessels were struck with ballistic and cruise missiles and drones for allegedly violating a naval blockade imposed on Saudi Arabia.

Saudi media confirmed that the Encelia was struck while sailing in the Red Sea, causing a fire on its bow, with all crew reported safe. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations agency said an unknown projectile hit a tanker roughly 130km from Al Shuqaiq, Saudi Arabia, causing a fire but no casualties.

Middle East Eye

Saudi media confirmed that the Encelia was struck while sailing in the Red Sea, causing a fire on its bow, with all crew reported safe. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations agency said an unknown projectile hit a tanker roughly 130km from Al Shuqaiq, Saudi Arabia, causing a fire but no casualties.

The alleged attacks followed the Houthis' July 20 announcement of a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/yemens-houthis-declare-naval-blockade-on-saudi-arabia">maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia</a>, declaring the Bab al-Mandab Strait closed to Saudi vessels. The group said the blockade was retaliation for Saudi restrictions on Yemen and a recent attack on Sanaa International Airport.

The alleged attacks followed the Houthis' July 20 announcement of a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, declaring the Bab al-Mandab Strait closed to Saudi vessels. The group said the blockade was retaliation for Saudi restrictions on Yemen and a recent attack on Sanaa International Airport.

The Bab al-Mandab Strait carries around 12% of global trade and roughly one-quarter of worldwide container traffic. Its strategic importance has grown as the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/us-launches-fresh-strikes-on-iran">during the U.S.-Iran war</a>, forcing Saudi Arabia to rely more heavily on Red Sea export routes.

The Bab al-Mandab Strait carries around 12% of global trade and roughly one-quarter of worldwide container traffic. Its strategic importance has grown as the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed during the U.S.-Iran war, forcing Saudi Arabia to rely more heavily on Red Sea export routes.

Meanwhile, U.S. strikes on Thursday targeted Iranian maritime, missile, drone, surveillance and air defense assets. Iranian media said the U.S. also struck a military site near Iran's only operating commercial nuclear reactor in Bushehr for the third time in two days.

Meanwhile, U.S. strikes on Thursday targeted Iranian maritime, missile, drone, surveillance and air defense assets. Iranian media said the U.S. also struck a military site near Iran's only operating commercial nuclear reactor in Bushehr for the third time in two days.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio alleged Iran had flown Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members into Yemen via direct flights from Tehran, which he said helped ignite the renewed confrontation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. Rubio did not provide evidence to support the claim.

Mario Nawfal

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio alleged Iran had flown Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members into Yemen via direct flights from Tehran, which he said helped ignite the renewed confrontation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. Rubio did not provide evidence to support the claim.

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The Saudi Press Agency confirmed the Encelia was struck while sailing in the Red Sea, causing a fire on its bow, with all crew reported safe. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency said an unknown projectile hit a tanker roughly 130km from Al Shuqaiq, Saudi Arabia, causing a fire but no casualties.

The Saudi Press Agency confirmed the Encelia was struck while sailing in the Red Sea, causing a fire on its bow, with all crew reported safe. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency said an unknown projectile hit a tanker roughly 130km from Al Shuqaiq, Saudi Arabia, causing a fire but no casualties.

The Houthis announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on July 20, declaring the Bab al-Mandab Strait closed to Saudi vessels. The group said the blockade was retaliation for Saudi restrictions on Yemen and a recent attack on Sanaa International Airport.

The Houthis announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on July 20, declaring the Bab al-Mandab Strait closed to Saudi vessels. The group said the blockade was retaliation for Saudi restrictions on Yemen and a recent attack on Sanaa International Airport.

U.S. Central Command said it launched strikes at President Trump's direction at 21:30 GMT, targeting Iranian military assets including maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites and air defense assets, marking the 12th consecutive night of strikes on Iran.

U.S. Central Command said it launched strikes at President Trump's direction at 21:30 GMT, targeting Iranian military assets including maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites and air defense assets, marking the 12th consecutive night of strikes on Iran.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio alleged Iran had flown Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members into Yemen via direct flights from Tehran, which he said helped ignite the renewed confrontation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. Rubio did not provide evidence to support the claim.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio alleged Iran had flown Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members into Yemen via direct flights from Tehran, which he said helped ignite the renewed confrontation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. Rubio did not provide evidence to support the claim.

The Bab al-Mandab Strait carries around 12% of global trade and roughly one-quarter of worldwide container traffic. Its strategic importance has grown as the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed during the U.S.-Iran war, forcing Saudi Arabia to rely more heavily on Red Sea export routes.

The Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers — the Encelia and the Layla — in the Red Sea, marking the first attacks since declaring a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. This is Iran flexing its muscle through a proxy, using cheap piracy to hold global energy markets hostage. A simultaneous closure of Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz would trigger an energy shock that dwarfs anything seen in recent memory.

The Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers — the Encelia and the Layla — in the Red Sea, marking the first attacks since declaring a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. This is Iran flexing its muscle through a proxy, using cheap piracy to hold global energy markets hostage. A simultaneous closure of Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz would trigger an energy shock that dwarfs anything seen in recent memory.

The Houthi tanker strikes are a direct consequence of Saudi Arabia bombing Sanaa airport to block a Houthi delegation's return from Iran, blowing up a years-long ceasefire. The blockade targets Saudi shipping specifically, and Iran's fingerprints are all over it — Secretary Rubio confirmed IRGC elements were flown into Yemen before the escalation. Letting this stand sets a catastrophic precedent for every critical waterway on the planet.

The Houthi tanker strikes are a direct consequence of Saudi Arabia bombing Sanaa airport to block a Houthi delegation's return from Iran, blowing up a years-long ceasefire. The blockade targets Saudi shipping specifically, and Iran's fingerprints are all over it — Secretary Rubio confirmed IRGC elements were flown into Yemen before the escalation. Letting this stand sets a catastrophic precedent for every critical waterway on the planet.

The Iran War

The Yemen Crisis

Houthis claim attack on oil tankers as US launches more strikes on Iran

Houthis Strike Saudi Oil Tankers in Red Sea

Yemen

Saudi Arabia

Middle East

Oil & gasoline

The attacks on the two oil tankers send a clear warning to Riyadh: Saudi Arabia cannot support military escalation against Yemen and Iran while expecting its energy exports to remain untouched. From this perspective, the Red Sea blockade is not piracy but legitimate retaliation intended to raise the cost of Saudi involvement and deter a wider regional conflict. The Houthis argue that only direct economic pressure will force their adversaries to reconsider further escalation.

The attacks on the two oil tankers send a clear warning to Riyadh: Saudi Arabia cannot support military escalation against Yemen and Iran while expecting its energy exports to remain untouched. From this perspective, the Red Sea blockade is not piracy but legitimate retaliation intended to raise the cost of Saudi involvement and deter a wider regional conflict. The Houthis argue that only direct economic pressure will force their adversaries to reconsider further escalation.

The cowardly attacks underscore how Iran continues to project power through the Houthis while maintaining plausible deniability. Rather than confronting its regional rivals directly, Tehran relies on an armed proxy to threaten one of the world's most critical energy corridors, increasing the risk of a broader conflict. If left unchecked, this strategy could destabilize global shipping, drive up energy prices, and further undermine freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.

The cowardly attacks underscore how Iran continues to project power through the Houthis while maintaining plausible deniability. Rather than confronting its regional rivals directly, Tehran relies on an armed proxy to threaten one of the world's most critical energy corridors, increasing the risk of a broader conflict. If left unchecked, this strategy could destabilize global shipping, drive up energy prices, and further undermine freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.

There is a 17 percent chance that state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia will cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 17 percent chance that state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia will cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Houthis Claim Attack on Saudi Oil Tankers

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