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"Current and former U.S. officials say they see little sign, at least so far, of a mass popular uprising in Iran or of significant fissures within the government or security forces that will result in a new regime."

"There is an 11% chance that the Iranian government will lose power before 2027."

"There is an 8.9% chance that the Iranian regime will collapse and Reza Pahlavi will become head of state before January 1, 2027."

"There is an 19% chance that the Iranian regime will fall before 2027."

"Regime change is possible but unlikely."

"In any case, the Islamic Republic faces a significant challenge, and its long-term survival is not assured."

"Regime collapse or irreversible degradation is more likely than regime survival (65% likelihood)."

“The regime cannot continue that long.”

"If Trump sees it through, and I think he will, I think they're [going to] fall pretty soon, in two, three, four weeks."

"I think the regime will collapse before Iranian New Year (Nowruz), which is March 20th."

Will the Islamic Republic of Iran Experience Regime Collapse by 2027?

Yemen's Houthi movement claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers, the Encelia and the Layla, in the Red Sea on Wednesday, saying the vessels were struck with ballistic and cruise missiles and drones for allegedly violating a naval blockade imposed on Saudi Arabia.

Yemen's Houthi movement claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers, the Encelia and the Layla, in the Red Sea on Wednesday, saying the vessels were struck with ballistic and cruise missiles and drones for allegedly violating a naval blockade imposed on Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi Press Agency confirmed the Encelia was struck while sailing in the Red Sea, causing a fire on its bow, with all crew reported safe. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency said an unknown projectile hit a tanker roughly 130km from Al Shuqaiq, Saudi Arabia, causing a fire but no casualties.

The Saudi Press Agency confirmed the Encelia was struck while sailing in the Red Sea, causing a fire on its bow, with all crew reported safe. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency said an unknown projectile hit a tanker roughly 130km from Al Shuqaiq, Saudi Arabia, causing a fire but no casualties.

The Houthis announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on July 20, declaring the Bab al-Mandab Strait closed to Saudi vessels. The group said the blockade was retaliation for Saudi restrictions on Yemen and a recent attack on Sanaa International Airport.

The Houthis announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on July 20, declaring the Bab al-Mandab Strait closed to Saudi vessels. The group said the blockade was retaliation for Saudi restrictions on Yemen and a recent attack on Sanaa International Airport.

U.S. Central Command said it launched strikes at President Trump's direction at 21:30 GMT, targeting Iranian military assets including maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites and air defense assets, marking the 12th consecutive night of strikes on Iran.

U.S. Central Command said it launched strikes at President Trump's direction at 21:30 GMT, targeting Iranian military assets including maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites and air defense assets, marking the 12th consecutive night of strikes on Iran.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio alleged Iran had flown Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members into Yemen via direct flights from Tehran, which he said helped ignite the renewed confrontation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. Rubio did not provide evidence to support the claim.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio alleged Iran had flown Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members into Yemen via direct flights from Tehran, which he said helped ignite the renewed confrontation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. Rubio did not provide evidence to support the claim.

The Bab al-Mandab Strait carries around 12% of global trade and roughly one-quarter of worldwide container traffic. Its strategic importance has grown as the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed during the U.S.-Iran war, forcing Saudi Arabia to rely more heavily on Red Sea export routes.

The Bab al-Mandab Strait carries around 12% of global trade and roughly one-quarter of worldwide container traffic. Its strategic importance has grown as the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed during the U.S.-Iran war, forcing Saudi Arabia to rely more heavily on Red Sea export routes.

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The Houthi blockade of Bab al-Mandeb is Iran's hand at work, using a proxy to strangle global oil markets and pressure Saudi Arabia into submission. With over 70% of Saudi crude now moving through the Red Sea, even sporadic attacks can effectively shut down a critical chokepoint — and Tehran knows it. The U.S. must lead a multinational coalition to keep these waterways open, because letting Iran dictate terms on international shipping sets a catastrophic precedent.

The Houthi blockade of Bab al-Mandeb is Iran's hand at work, using a proxy to strangle global oil markets and pressure Saudi Arabia into submission. With over 70% of Saudi crude now moving through the Red Sea, even sporadic attacks can effectively shut down a critical chokepoint — and Tehran knows it. The U.S. must lead a multinational coalition to keep these waterways open, because letting Iran dictate terms on international shipping sets a catastrophic precedent.

Saudi Arabia's own blockade on Yemen and its attack on Sanaa airport triggered this crisis, and the Houthis are simply responding in kind. Closing Bab al-Mandeb to Saudi-linked vessels is a direct consequence of Riyadh's years of economic strangulation of Yemeni civilians. The real threat to global shipping isn't Houthi retaliation — it's a regional policy that keeps Yemen trapped while Saudi Arabia hides behind international law it never applied to itself.

Saudi Arabia's own blockade on Yemen and its attack on Sanaa airport triggered this crisis, and the Houthis are simply responding in kind. Closing Bab al-Mandeb to Saudi-linked vessels is a direct consequence of Riyadh's years of economic strangulation of Yemeni civilians. The real threat to global shipping isn't Houthi retaliation — it's a regional policy that keeps Yemen trapped while Saudi Arabia hides behind international law it never applied to itself.

The Iran War

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Houthis claim attack on oil tankers as US launches more strikes on Iran

Houthis Strike Saudi Oil Tankers in Red Sea

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Oil & gasoline

The Houthi blockade of Bab el-Mandeb is reckless provocation that threatens global energy markets, with over 7% of world oil supply at risk. Saudi Arabia's $78 billion military must defend its own tankers rather than wait for U.S. intervention. A proper U.S.-led multinational coalition — not ad-hoc strikes — is the only credible answer to Iran and its proxies holding the world economy hostage.

The Houthi blockade of Bab el-Mandeb is reckless provocation that threatens global energy markets, with over 7% of world oil supply at risk. Saudi Arabia's $78 billion military must defend its own tankers rather than wait for U.S. intervention. A proper U.S.-led multinational coalition — not ad-hoc strikes — is the only credible answer to Iran and its proxies holding the world economy hostage.

The Houthi blockade is a direct response to Saudi Arabia's illegal siege on Yemen and its attack on Sanaa airport — Iran's fingerprints are all over it, with IRGC elements flown in to escalate. Closing both Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz simultaneously would trigger an energy shock dwarfing anything seen before. This is Iran using the Houthis to tighten its grip on the world's most critical shipping chokepoints.

The Houthi blockade is a direct response to Saudi Arabia's illegal siege on Yemen and its attack on Sanaa airport — Iran's fingerprints are all over it, with IRGC elements flown in to escalate. Closing both Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz simultaneously would trigger an energy shock dwarfing anything seen before. This is Iran using the Houthis to tighten its grip on the world's most critical shipping chokepoints.

Houthis claim attack on oil tankers as US launches more strikes on Iran

Houthis Strike Saudi Oil Tankers in Red Sea

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Houthis claim attack on oil tankers as US launches more strikes on Iran

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