This is a genuine step toward peace, as it removes a major obstacle to implementing a ceasefire and to getting humanitarian aid flowing into Gaza. The move hands civilian governance to a technocratic body and proves Hamas isn't clinging to power.
This is not a peace gesture. Any civilian government operating under Hamas's guns will simply do what Hamas demands. Hamas is shedding the burden of running Gaza, not its actual power. Full disarmament and complete demilitarization of Gaza are the only arrangementsreal thatpath actuallyto protectprotecting Palestinians and advanceadvancing the Trump peace plan.
There'sDemanding aunilateral 3.3%disarmament chancewhile thatIsrael thecontrols most of Gaza warand willcontinues endstrikes andisn't significanta progresspeace beframework made— towardsit's ademanded two-statesurrender. solutionStripping beforeweapons 2030,from accordingan tooccupied thepeople Metaculusleaves predictionthem communitydefenseless against a state armed with international weaponry.
There's a 3.3% chance that the Gaza war will end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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