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2026 07 Japan Space Probe Skims Asteroid.Html

Space

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"The risk of an Earth impact has since dropped to zero, but there's still a slim chance 2024 YR4 could hit the moon in 2032 — 3.8% likelihood as of early April."

"As of now, there is still a 97.9% chance of a miss with respect to Earth."

Asteroid 2024 YR4 "has a 1.3% probability of striking earth on Dec 22, 2032 (i.e., it has a 98.7% chance of missing earth)."

"Now we know the Earth isn't in danger, I'm very excited by the 3-4% chance asteroid 2024YR4 might hit the Moon."

"As of mid-2025, the asteroid's chance of striking Earth in 2032 is virtually zero."

Will the Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hit Earth/Moon?

Elon Musk

Barack Obama

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Seth Abramson

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Peter Hague

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Mariel Borowitz

"That there will not be a manned flight to Mars in 2028, nor in 2031, and probably not for twenty years after that."

"I’m thinking somewhere between 2040 and 2050."

"I'd say that [2040] is an audacious goal for us to meet."

"Humans are unlikely to step foot on Mars until the 2040s/2050s at the earliest, and there’ll never be a significant human settlement there because Mars is basically uninhabitable."

"Since nothing ever seems to go exactly according to plan, I'd expect something more like 2040."

"Space agencies hoping to send crewed missions to Mars by the early 2030s will either have to double down on their budgets or settle for less ambitious missions."

"And if we persevere on this pathway, we can reach Mars itself before 2035."

"We want to achieve a Mars landing in 2033."

"Humans will set out for Mars in the 2029 or 2031 windows, most likely."

"I think that the first human mission to Mars will take place about 2030, even though it is not currently on NASA’s schedule or any other space agency."

"Human landings [on Mars] may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely."

Will humans be sent to Mars before 2036?

The Japanese space agency's (JAXA) Hayabusa2 probe completed a flyby of asteroid Torifune on Sunday, passing within 800 meters of the space rock while traveling at more than 18,000 kilometers per hour. If confirmed, it would be one of the closest high-speed passes of a near-Earth asteroid.

The Japanese space agency's (JAXA) Hayabusa2 probe completed a flyby of asteroid Torifune on Sunday, passing within 800 meters of the space rock while traveling at more than 18,000 kilometers per hour. If confirmed, it would be one of the closest high-speed passes of a near-Earth asteroid.

Images released by JAXA on Monday showed Torifune resembling a snowman, with what appeared to be two round objects joined together. JAXA scientist Yuya Mimasu said the asteroid "personally looked like a snowman."

Images released by JAXA on Monday showed Torifune resembling a snowman, with what appeared to be two round objects joined together. JAXA scientist Yuya Mimasu said the asteroid "personally looked like a snowman."

The flyby was designed to test whether scientists could precisely control a probe's trajectory at high speed — a key capability for any future mission aimed at deflecting an asteroid away from Earth. The mission was not prompted by any known asteroid threat.

The flyby was designed to test whether scientists could precisely control a probe's trajectory at high speed — a key capability for any future mission aimed at deflecting an asteroid away from Earth. The mission was not prompted by any known asteroid threat.

Hayabusa2 recorded surface data from Torifune using an optical camera and a mid-infrared camera, which measures surface temperature, thermal inertia and roughness. The infrared imagery showed cooler temperatures in shadowed regions and warmer readings where the surface faced the sun.

Hayabusa2 recorded surface data from Torifune using an optical camera and a mid-infrared camera, which measures surface temperature, thermal inertia and roughness. The infrared imagery showed cooler temperatures in shadowed regions and warmer readings where the surface faced the sun.

The Torifune flyby follows NASA's 2022 Double Asteroid Redirection Test, in which a spacecraft was deliberately crashed into the 160-meter-wide asteroid Dimorphos, successfully altering its orbit. European Space Agency scientist Patrick Michel said each new asteroid image improves planetary defense preparedness.

The Torifune flyby follows NASA's 2022 Double Asteroid Redirection Test, in which a spacecraft was deliberately crashed into the 160-meter-wide asteroid Dimorphos, successfully altering its orbit. European Space Agency scientist Patrick Michel said each new asteroid image improves planetary defense preparedness.

Launched in December 2014, Hayabusa2 previously collected samples from asteroid Ryugu and returned them to Earth in 2020. The probe is next expected to reach asteroid 1998 KY26 — just 11 meters across — in 2031, where it will attempt to orbit and land on the surface.

Launched in December 2014, Hayabusa2 previously collected samples from asteroid Ryugu and returned them to Earth in 2020. The probe is next expected to reach asteroid 1998 KY26 — just 11 meters across — in 2031, where it will attempt to orbit and land on the surface.

Japan conducts near-Earth asteroid flyby

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Japan conducts near-Earth asteroid flyby

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