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"He's doomed, he will be gone - I thought he'd be gone by now. I was wrong. But I do think he's got just a few months in him."

"There is a 6% chance Keir Starmer will still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026."

"84% of bets back a 2026 exit for Keir Starmer."

"There is a 62% chance Keir Starmer will be out before Sep 1, 2026."

"There's a 32% chance Keir Starmer will remain Prime Minister in 2026."

"43% think that Keir Starmer will still be Prime Minister at the end of the year."

"These things turn around very, very fast and anyone making predictions in the current atmosphere is a fool."

"As much as MPs might want him to go, he is unlikely to acquiesce."

"There is only a 64% likelihood that he will still be in Downing Street by 31 December 2026."

“I will be sitting in this seat by 2027 and if this long-form interview works, we can try it again in January of next year as well.”

Will Keir Starmer Remain Prime Minister Through to the End of 2026?

Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Labour leader and prime minister on Monday, pledging an orderly handover of power to his successor and stating that no new major policy or spending commitments would be made during the transition period.

Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Labour leader and prime minister on Monday, pledging an orderly handover of power to his successor and stating that no new major policy or spending commitments would be made during the transition period.

Andy Burnham, the new MP for Makerfield following his by-election win, is the front-runner to succeed Starmer. If he faces no challengers when nominations close on July 16, he could become prime minister as early as July 17.

Andy Burnham, the new MP for Makerfield following his by-election win, is the front-runner to succeed Starmer. If he faces no challengers when nominations close on July 16, he could become prime minister as early as July 17.

Starmer has authorised civil service access talks with prospective leadership candidates and told cabinet he would seek to "resolve difficult issues in the coming weeks" to support his successor.

Starmer has authorised civil service access talks with prospective leadership candidates and told cabinet he would seek to "resolve difficult issues in the coming weeks" to support his successor.

Cabinet minister Darren Jones and former Armed Forces Minister Al Carns are both weighing up whether to challenge Burnham for the Labour leadership. Carns told ITV he was "not ready to make a decision on this in any way, shape or form."

Cabinet minister Darren Jones and former Armed Forces Minister Al Carns are both weighing up whether to challenge Burnham for the Labour leadership. Carns told ITV he was "not ready to make a decision on this in any way, shape or form."

Starmer intends to publish the Defence Investment Plan before the NATO summit in Turkey on July 7. Allies of Burnham have said the decision should fall to the next leader, creating friction between the two camps.

Starmer intends to publish the Defence Investment Plan before the NATO summit in Turkey on July 7. Allies of Burnham have said the decision should fall to the next leader, creating friction between the two camps.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves told MPs she was "confident" the Defence Investment Plan would be published before the NATO summit, saying it would involve "more money spent more effectively." Burnham is expected to outline his economic plans in a speech the following week.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves told MPs she was "confident" the Defence Investment Plan would be published before the NATO summit, saying it would involve "more money spent more effectively." Burnham is expected to outline his economic plans in a speech the following week.

Starmer Resigns; Burnham Frontrunner to Be PM

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Starmer Resigns; Burnham Frontrunner to Be PM

BritishStarmer MPsResigns; weighBurnham upFrontrunner leadershipto challengeBe PM

The Controversies

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